Frosinone 1-1 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Frosinone at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Frosinone face Palermo.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Benito Stirpe plays host to Frosinone versus Palermo in Serie B (matchday 34). Kick-off: Friday 10 April 2026 at 20:30 UK time.
Form
Frosinone (all games): 6W 4D 0L across their last 10 — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Frosinone have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Palermo have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, Palermo have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.20 PPG for Frosinone against 2.00 for Palermo. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.4 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 30 Aug 2025, ended Frosinone 0–0 Palermo — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Frosinone goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 29 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Palermo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Frosinone 56% versus Palermo 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 51% | Palermo 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Frosinone surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Palermo have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 43% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 1.51 xG and Palermo 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 1.198 / defence 0.923 | Palermo attack 1.054 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.099. Data: built from Frosinone's last 71 games and Palermo's last 71.
Result probabilities: Frosinone 46% | Draw 29% | Palermo 25%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 2.18 | Draw 3.47 | Palermo 3.96. Frosinone hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Frosinone are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Frosinone if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Frosinone 50% (last 10 home games) | Palermo 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, matchday 34 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Friday 10 April 2026 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 46% | Draw 29% | Palermo 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Frosinone 1.51 / Palermo 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 1.198 / def 0.923 | Palermo attack 1.054 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Palermo xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frosinone vs Palermo FAQs
What time does Frosinone vs Palermo kick off?
Frosinone vs Palermo kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Friday 10 April 2026 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs Palermo?
Frosinone 1 - 1 Palermo.
Where is Frosinone vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Palermo part of?
Frosinone vs Palermo is a Serie B fixture (matchday 34) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 46% chance of winning, Palermo a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Frosinone and Palermo will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Frosinone vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Frosinone's attack at 1.20x the league average against Palermo's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Palermo's attack (1.05x) against Frosinone's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from Frosinone's last 71 games and Palermo's last 71 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
46%
2.18
29%
3.47
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Frosinone xG
Total xG
2.58
1.07
Palermo xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
16%
6.35
6%
17.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.2 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frosinone vs Palermo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Frosinone and 1.07 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Frosinone's recent record stands at 28W 27D 16L from 71 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five.
Palermo, meanwhile, have gone 32W 20D 19L across 71 games — 1.63 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for Frosinone against 1.63 for Palermo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Frosinone have managed 14W 14D 7L from their last 35 home games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Palermo's away record stands at 12W 11D 12L across their last 35 away games, a 1.34 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Frosinone are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.49 scored and 0.99 conceded.
Defensively: Palermo in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Current Season
Palermo
Current Season
Frosinone (Home) vs Palermo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Frosinone
Current Season
Palermo
Current Season
❓ Frosinone vs Palermo Form FAQs
What form are Frosinone and Palermo in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 28W 27D 16L in their last 71 games (1.56 PPG), while Palermo have gone 32W 20D 19L in their last 71 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Frosinone at home or Palermo away?
Frosinone's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Frosinone at home: 1.60 PPG; Palermo away: 1.34 PPG.
Have Frosinone or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Palermo in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 10 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Frosinone have gone 1W 2D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Palermo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Frosinone
4
Draws
1
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frosinone vs Palermo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Palermo?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Frosinone have won 1, Palermo have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Palermo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 April 2026: Frosinone 1-1 Palermo.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 47% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Frosinone 57%, Palermo 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Frosinone) and 54% (Palermo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frosinone vs Palermo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Frosinone and Palermo matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Frosinone's games and 60% of Palermo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Frosinone and Palermo matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Frosinone's matches and 54% of Palermo's.
Do Frosinone and Palermo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Frosinone's recent matches and 77% of Palermo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Frosinone and Palermo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 34, as Frosinone and Palermo drew 1-1 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.51 xG and Palermo 1.07 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 1.20 / defence 0.92 against Palermo attack 1.05 / defence 0.91, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 46% | Draw 29% | Palermo 25%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 51%, Palermo 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Frosinone's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Palermo's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Frosinone 1.56 PPG, Palermo 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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