Empoli 4-2 Pescara – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Empoli at 43%, yet in-form Pescara provide a compelling counter-argument — this Empoli vs Pescara fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Empoli and Pescara meet at Stadio Carlo Castellani in Serie B (matchday 32). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 14:00 UK time.

Current Form

Empoli's record over their last 10 games: 0W 6D 4L (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

In front of their own supporters, Empoli have posted 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Empoli are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Pescara have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Pescara's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

On a straight form reading, Pescara are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Empoli's last 10 home games and Pescara's last 10 away games) — Empoli have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Pescara in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Empoli, 1 for Pescara and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2025, ended Empoli 0–4 Pescara — a Pescara win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Empoli — key trading statistics (last 31 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).

Pescara — key trading statistics (last 31 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 75%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Empoli 64% and Pescara 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 52% | Pescara 64%). Note also that Pescara surrender HT leads in 75% of cases while Empoli recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 56% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.46 xG and Pescara 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.860 / defence 1.147 | Pescara attack 0.899 / defence 1.245. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.093. Pescara's defence rating of 1.245 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Empoli's projected output up. Data: built from Empoli's last 31 games and Pescara's last 31.

Result probabilities: Empoli 43% | Draw 29% | Pescara 28%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 2.30 | Draw 3.46 | Pescara 3.61. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Empoli as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Pescara (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Empoli if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Empoli 60% (last 10 home games) | Pescara 60% (last 10 away games).

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