Empoli 1-1 Cesena – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Empoli at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Empoli face Cesena.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Carlo Castellani plays host to Empoli versus Cesena in Serie B (matchday 27). Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 14:00 UK time.

Current Form

Empoli's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Empoli at home: 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Cesena have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Cesena's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Empoli, 0.70 for Cesena — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Empoli's last 10 home games and Cesena's last 10 away games) — Empoli have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Cesena in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for Empoli, 0 for Cesena and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 10 Jan 2026, ended Empoli 1–0 Cesena — a Empoli win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Empoli half-time and goal-timing data (last 64 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Cesena half-time and goal-timing data (last 64 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 56% versus Cesena 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 48% | Cesena 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.38 xG and Cesena 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.883 / defence 1.049 | Cesena attack 0.941 / defence 1.240. League average goals — home 1.261 / away 1.111. Cesena's defence rating of 1.240 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Empoli's projected output up. Data: built from Empoli's last 26 games and Cesena's last 64.

Result probabilities: Empoli 43% | Draw 28% | Cesena 29%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 2.33 | Draw 3.59 | Cesena 3.41. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Empoli at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Empoli if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Empoli 60% (last 10 home games) | Cesena 60% (last 10 away games).

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