Cremonese 1-0 Lecco – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cremonese at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cremonese vs Lecco encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Cremonese welcome Lecco to Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie B (matchday 14). Kick-off is Saturday 25 November 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Cremonese have gone 5W 3D 2L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Cremonese have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.80 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Lecco — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Lecco's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 2L across their last 6 road games (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Cremonese have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Cremonese trading profile (last 12 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Lecco trading profile (last 12 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 58% versus Lecco 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 67% | Lecco 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.14 xG and Lecco 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.883 / defence 1.006 | Lecco attack 0.863 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.115 / away 1.190. Data: built from Cremonese's last 13 games and Lecco's last 12.
Result probabilities: Cremonese 37% | Draw 32% | Lecco 31%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.72 | Draw 3.13 | Lecco 3.20. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cremonese are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Cremonese 40% (last 10 home games) | Lecco 67% (last 6 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Lecco | Competition: Serie B, matchday 14 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Saturday 25 November 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 37% | Draw 32% | Lecco 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Cremonese 1.14 / Lecco 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.883 / def 1.006 | Lecco attack 0.863 / def 1.160 | league avg home 1.115 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Lecco xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cremonese vs Lecco FAQs
What time does Cremonese vs Lecco kick off?
Cremonese vs Lecco kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Lecco?
Cremonese 1 - 0 Lecco.
Where is Cremonese vs Lecco being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Lecco part of?
Cremonese vs Lecco is a Serie B fixture (matchday 14) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Lecco?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 37% chance of winning, Lecco a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Lecco?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Cremonese and Lecco will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Cremonese vs Lecco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cremonese's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Lecco's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. The same calculation in reverse, Lecco's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cremonese's last 13 games and Lecco's last 12 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
37%
2.72
32%
3.13
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.17
1.03
Lecco xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
13%
7.63
10%
10.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 11.7 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.4 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cremonese vs Lecco Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Lecco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Lecco expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.03 for Lecco, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Lecco?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cremonese come into this having played 12 games, going 6W 3D 3L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, Lecco sit at 1.00 PPG from 12 outings (3W 3D 6L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-W across their last five.
Cremonese carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Lecco — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Cremonese's home form reads 1W 2D 3L across their last 6 home games, a 0.83 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.75 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Lecco have taken 1.33 points per game from their last 6 away games (2W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lecco come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cremonese are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Lecco are on 1.08 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 12 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Blended
Lecco
Blended
Cremonese (Home) vs Lecco (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cremonese
Blended
Lecco
Blended
❓ Cremonese vs Lecco Form FAQs
What form are Cremonese and Lecco in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 6W 3D 3L in their last 12 games (1.75 PPG), while Lecco have gone 3W 3D 6L in their last 12 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Lecco away?
Lecco's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 0.83 PPG; Lecco away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 3 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Cremonese
0
Draws
0
Lecco
Recent Meetings
❓ Cremonese vs Lecco H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Lecco?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Cremonese have won 2, Lecco have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Lecco last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 February 2024: Lecco 0-1 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Lecco?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lecco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 50%, Lecco 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cremonese) and 67% (Lecco). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cremonese have failed to score in 33% of games; Lecco in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Lecco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cremonese vs Lecco Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cremonese and Lecco matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Cremonese's games and 67% of Lecco's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Cremonese and Lecco matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Cremonese's matches and 67% of Lecco's.
Do Cremonese and Lecco matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Cremonese's recent matches and 83% of Lecco's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cremonese edge out Lecco 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Lecco 1-0 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.14 xG and Lecco 1.03 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lecco landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.88 / defence 1.01 against Lecco attack 0.86 / defence 1.16, drawn from 13/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 37% | Draw 32% | Lecco 31%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 67%, Lecco 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Lecco's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cremonese (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Lecco (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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