Cremonese 1-0 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Cremonese (49%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Cremonese face Cosenza.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Cosenza travel to Stadio Giovanni Zini to take on Cremonese in Serie B (matchday 20). The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 January 2024 at 15:15 UK time.
Form Guide
Cremonese — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Cremonese's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Cosenza have recorded 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Cosenza have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Cremonese are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.20 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Cremonese's 30% BTTS rate and Cosenza's 30% (from Cremonese's last 10 home games and Cosenza's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Cremonese: 3 wins from 3 H2H matches against 0 for Cosenza, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 26 Sep 2023, ended Cremonese 2–1 Cosenza — a Cremonese win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Cremonese and goals — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Cremonese in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Cosenza in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 51% versus Cosenza 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 49% | Cosenza 37%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Cremonese surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Cosenza have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 32% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.17 xG and Cosenza 0.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 1.029 / defence 0.816 | Cosenza attack 0.606 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.168. Cosenza's attack rating of 0.606 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.58. Data: built from Cremonese's last 19 games and Cosenza's last 57.
Result probabilities: Cremonese 49% | Draw 33% | Cosenza 17%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.03 | Draw 2.99 | Cosenza 5.81. Cremonese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS Yes probability 31% | Total xG 1.75. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.75 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Cosenza's lower xG of 0.58 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.75 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 75% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Cremonese's last 10 home games and Cosenza's last 10 away games) averaging 1.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cremonese 30% (last 10 home games) | Cosenza 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, matchday 20 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Sunday 14 January 2024 at 15:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 49% | Draw 33% | Cosenza 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% (Under 75%) | BTTS Yes 31% (No 69%) | xG Cremonese 1.17 / Cosenza 0.58 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 1.029 / def 0.816 | Cosenza attack 0.606 / def 0.889 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
0.58
Cosenza xG
31%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cremonese vs Cosenza FAQs
What time does Cremonese vs Cosenza kick off?
Cremonese vs Cosenza kicked off at 15:15 UK time on Sunday 14 January 2024 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Cosenza?
Cremonese 1 - 0 Cosenza.
Where is Cremonese vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Cosenza part of?
Cremonese vs Cosenza is a Serie B fixture (matchday 20) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 49% chance of winning, Cosenza a 17% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Cremonese and Cosenza will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (69%).
Will Cremonese vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (75%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cremonese's attack rating (1.03) and Cosenza's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cosenza's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 0.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cremonese's last 19 games and Cosenza's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (18.9%), 1-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
49%
2.03
33%
2.99
17%
5.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
20.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.4%
Draw
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Cremonese xG
Total xG
1.75
0.58
Cosenza xG
2.03
49%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
5.81
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.20
69%
BTTS No
1.46
Clean Sheet
56%
1.78
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
28%
3.61
5%
18.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.4 | 10.1 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 20.4 | 11.8 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 6.9 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cremonese vs Cosenza Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.0%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Cremonese and 0.58 for Cosenza, a combined total of 1.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, Cremonese have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 14W 17D 26L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Cosenza's form line: 13W 20D 24L from 57 games, 1.04 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cremonese on 1.04 PPG, Cosenza on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cremonese have posted 1.11 PPG from their last 28 home games (8W 7D 13L).
On the road, Cosenza have gone 3W 10D 15L from their last 28 away games — 0.68 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cremonese are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 0.84 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Blended
Cosenza
Blended
Cremonese (Home) vs Cosenza (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cremonese
Blended
Cosenza
Blended
❓ Cremonese vs Cosenza Form FAQs
What form are Cremonese and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 14W 17D 26L in their last 57 games (1.04 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 13W 20D 24L in their last 57 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Cosenza away?
Cremonese's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.11 PPG; Cosenza away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 18 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cremonese's record when hosting Cosenza specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Cremonese
0
Draws
1
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Cremonese vs Cosenza H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Cosenza?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Cremonese have won 5, Cosenza have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Cosenza last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 January 2025: Cremonese 3-1 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Cosenza?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cosenza see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 36%, Cosenza 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 39% for Cremonese and 29% for Cosenza.
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Cremonese have failed to score in 39% of games; Cosenza in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cremonese vs Cosenza Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cremonese and Cosenza matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Cremonese's recent matches and 39% of Cosenza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cremonese and Cosenza matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Cremonese's recent games and 29% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Cosenza matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Cremonese's recent matches and 57% of Cosenza's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cremonese edge out Cosenza 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Cosenza 1-0 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.17 xG and Cosenza 0.58 xG, a combined 1.75. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 1.03 / defence 0.82 against Cosenza attack 0.61 / defence 0.89, drawn from 19/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 49% | Draw 33% | Cosenza 17%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 53% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 49%, Cosenza 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Cosenza's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.04 PPG, Cosenza 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cremonese win broke the near-deadlock. Cremonese (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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