🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Ascoli at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ascoli vs Virtus Entella fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca plays host to Ascoli versus Virtus Entella in Serie B, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 28 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form

Virtus Entella have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Virtus Entella haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Virtus Entella's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 1.34 xG and Virtus Entella 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Virtus Entella attack 0.825 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.071. Data: 0 Ascoli games / 38 Virtus Entella games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Ascoli 43% | Draw 30% | Virtus Entella 27%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Virtus Entella 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Ascoli as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ascoli if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights