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Poisson model rates Benevento at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Hellas Verona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Ciro Vigorito plays host to Benevento versus Hellas Verona in Serie B, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Saturday 12 September 2026 at 13:00 UTC.

Current Form

Hellas Verona (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 0.30 points per game. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Hellas Verona haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

On the road, Hellas Verona have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.51 xG and Hellas Verona 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Hellas Verona attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.071. Data: 0 Benevento games / 0 Hellas Verona games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Benevento 47% | Draw 28% | Hellas Verona 25%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Hellas Verona 4.00. Benevento hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Benevento as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Benevento if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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