🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Empoli at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Empoli vs Arezzo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Arezzo travel to Stadio Carlo Castellani to take on Empoli. The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 September 2026, 13:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Empoli stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Empoli haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Empoli's home record at Stadio Carlo Castellani: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.73 xG and Arezzo 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.973 / defence 1.010 | Arezzo attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.071. Data: 38 Empoli games / 0 Arezzo games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Empoli 55% | Draw 26% | Arezzo 19%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Arezzo 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Empoli (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Empoli as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights