Sudtirol vs Modena – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 37%, yet in-form Modena provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sudtirol vs Modena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sudtirol host Modena at Stadio Marco Druso in Serie B, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 12 September 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sudtirol stand at 0W 5D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sudtirol haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Sudtirol's form when playing at home: 1W 6D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Marco Druso this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Modena — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Modena haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Modena's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Modena are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Sudtirol, 3 for Modena and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 8 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.4 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Sudtirol in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Modena in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 51% versus Modena 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 38% | Modena 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.19 xG and Modena 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.838 / defence 1.030 | Modena attack 0.970 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.071. Data: 38 Sudtirol games / 38 Modena games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 37% | Draw 31% | Modena 31%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Modena 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sudtirol are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Modena (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sudtirol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Sudtirol 50% | Modena 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 37% | Draw 31% | Modena 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Sudtirol 1.19 / Modena 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.838 / def 1.030 | Modena attack 0.970 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Modena xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Modena kick off?
Sudtirol vs Modena is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 12 September 2026 at Stadio Marco Druso.
Where is Sudtirol vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Modena part of?
Sudtirol vs Modena is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 37% chance of winning, Modena a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Sudtirol and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Modena?
Record (8 meetings): Sudtirol 1W | Draws 4 | Modena 3W.
What form are Sudtirol and Modena in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Sudtirol (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sudtirol's attack rating (0.84) and Modena's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Modena's attack versus Sudtirol's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
37%
2.67
31%
3.19
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.26
1.07
Modena xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
13%
7.80
9%
10.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 11.1 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.07 for Modena, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sudtirol's recent record stands at 8W 18D 13L from 39 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-D in the last five. Sudtirol haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Modena, meanwhile, have gone 15W 10D 14L across 39 games — 1.41 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. Modena haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sudtirol on 1.08 PPG, Modena on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sudtirol have managed 4W 8D 7L from 19 games — 1.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Modena's away record stands at 6W 6D 7L across 19 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Sudtirol are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.26 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Modena in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Pre-Season
Modena
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Modena in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 8W 18D 13L in their last 39 games (1.08 PPG), while Modena have gone 15W 10D 14L in their last 39 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Modena away?
Modena's away record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.05 PPG; Modena away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Sudtirol or Modena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Modena in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sudtirol and Modena runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Sudtirol's record when hosting Modena specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Sudtirol
4
Draws
3
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Modena?
From 8 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 1, Modena have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Sudtirol 1-1 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Modena?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 47%, Modena 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 37% for Sudtirol and 32% for Modena.
On the defensive side: Modena in 32%; Sudtirol have failed to score in 47% of games; Modena in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Modena?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 42% of Modena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sudtirol vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Sudtirol's recent games and 32% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Modena tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Modena in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.