Benevento 4-1 Cittadella – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Benevento at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Cittadella fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Ciro Vigorito plays host to Benevento versus Cittadella in Serie B, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Tuesday 21 September 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Benevento have collected 1.75 PPG across 4 Serie B outings this season: 2W 1D 1L. Last five: W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cittadella (all games): 3W 0D 1L across 4 Serie B outings this term — 2.25 points per game. Last five: W W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Cittadella have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Cittadella are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (2.25 vs 1.75). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using overall form) — Benevento have seen both teams score in just 25% of their games, Cittadella in only 25%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Trading & In-Play
Benevento — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Cittadella — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Benevento 25% | Cittadella 25%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Benevento 25% | Cittadella 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.33 xG and Cittadella 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 1.048 / defence 1.195 | Cittadella attack 0.696 / defence 1.221. League average goals — home 1.039 / away 1.351. Cittadella bring a strong defensive rating of 1.221 — this is suppressing Benevento's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Benevento games / 4 Cittadella games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 40% | Draw 30% | Cittadella 30%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Cittadella 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Benevento as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cittadella (2.25 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Benevento if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Benevento 25% | Cittadella 25% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Cittadella | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Sep 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 40% | Draw 30% | Cittadella 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Benevento 1.33 / Cittadella 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 1.048 / def 1.195 | Cittadella attack 0.696 / def 1.221 | league avg home 1.039 / away 1.351 • Poisson stance: Benevento (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Cittadella xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Cittadella kick off?
Benevento vs Cittadella kicked off at 17:00 on Tuesday 21 September 2021 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What was the final score in Benevento vs Cittadella?
Benevento 4 - 1 Cittadella.
Where is Benevento vs Cittadella being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Cittadella part of?
Benevento vs Cittadella is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Cittadella?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 40% chance of winning, Cittadella a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Cittadella?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Benevento and Cittadella will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Cittadella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Cittadella?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Benevento and Cittadella in?
Benevento (all comps): 2W-1D-1L in 4 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W. Cittadella (all comps): 3W-0D-1L in 4 | 2.25 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Benevento's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Cittadella's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. Flip it around — Cittadella's attack (0.70x) against Benevento's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
40%
2.51
30%
3.31
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.45
1.12
Cittadella xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
13%
7.73
8%
12.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.9 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Cittadella?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Benevento and Cittadella expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Benevento and 1.12 for Cittadella, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Cittadella?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Benevento come into this having played 4 games, going 2W 1D 1L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Cittadella sit at 2.25 PPG from 4 outings (3W 0D 1L), a run that reads W-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Cittadella, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cittadella carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Benevento — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Benevento are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Cittadella are on 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Benevento have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Cittadella in 25%.
Defensively: Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Cittadella in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Early Season
Cittadella
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Cittadella in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 games (1.75 PPG), while Cittadella have gone 3W 0D 1L in their last 4 (2.25 PPG).
Have Benevento or Cittadella been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Cittadella in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Benevento won 4-1 on 21 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Benevento have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cittadella — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Benevento
0
Draws
1
Cittadella
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Cittadella?
From 4 meetings on record, Benevento have won 3, Cittadella have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Benevento and Cittadella last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2023, when Cittadella 3-1 Benevento.
Who has won more matches between Benevento and Cittadella?
Benevento have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Benevento see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Cittadella see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 25% (Benevento) and 25% (Cittadella) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Benevento and 25% for Cittadella.
On the defensive side: Benevento keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Cittadella in 50%; Benevento have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Cittadella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Cittadella?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Benevento's recent matches and 25% of Cittadella's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benevento vs Cittadella usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Benevento's recent games and 25% of Cittadella's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Benevento run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Cittadella.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benevento beat Cittadella 4-1 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benevento 1.33 xG and Cittadella 1.12 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Benevento beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benevento attack 1.05 / defence 1.20 against Cittadella attack 0.70 / defence 1.22, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benevento 40% | Draw 30% | Cittadella 30%, with Benevento to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benevento 25%, Cittadella 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benevento's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Cittadella's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Cittadella arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.75. Form was overturned, with Benevento winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Benevento scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Cittadella shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.