Spal 3-2 Vicenza Virtus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Spal at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Spal vs Vicenza Virtus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 5 as Spal welcome Vicenza Virtus to Stadio Paolo Mazza. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 21 September 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Spal stand at 1W 1D 2L from 4 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.75 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Spal have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Serie B games this season, Vicenza Virtus have recorded 0W 0D 4L from 4 outings — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Vicenza Virtus have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Spal carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.00 vs 0.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Spal trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Vicenza Virtus trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spal 50% versus Vicenza Virtus 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spal 50% | Vicenza Virtus 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spal 1.77 xG and Vicenza Virtus 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spal attack 1.372 / defence 1.024 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.697 / defence 1.201. League average goals — home 1.075 / away 1.375. Spal carry an above-average attack strength of 1.372 — their λ of 1.77 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Vicenza Virtus bring a strong defensive rating of 1.201 — this is suppressing Spal's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Spal games / 4 Vicenza Virtus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spal 54% | Draw 26% | Vicenza Virtus 19%. Fair-value odds: Spal 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Vicenza Virtus 5.26. Spal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Spal are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Spal 50% | Vicenza Virtus 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spal vs Vicenza Virtus | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Paolo Mazza • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Sep 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spal 54% | Draw 26% | Vicenza Virtus 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Spal 1.77 / Vicenza Virtus 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Spal attack 1.372 / def 1.024 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.697 / def 1.201 | league avg home 1.075 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Spal (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Spal xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Vicenza Virtus xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spal vs Vicenza Virtus kick off?
Spal vs Vicenza Virtus kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 21 September 2021 at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What was the final score in Spal vs Vicenza Virtus?
Spal 3 - 2 Vicenza Virtus.
Where is Spal vs Vicenza Virtus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What competition is Spal vs Vicenza Virtus part of?
Spal vs Vicenza Virtus is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spal vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our statistical model gives Spal a 54% chance of winning, Vicenza Virtus a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Spal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spal vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Spal and Vicenza Virtus will score (BTTS).
Will Spal vs Vicenza Virtus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Vicenza Virtus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Spal and Vicenza Virtus in?
Spal (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-L. Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 0W-0D-4L in 4 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Spal's attack at 1.37x the league average against Vicenza Virtus's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vicenza Virtus's attack versus Spal's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spal Win
54%
1.84
26%
3.81
19%
5.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Spal xG
Total xG
2.75
0.98
Vicenza Virtus xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
5.17
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
17%
5.86
Win to Nil
20%
4.90
3%
30.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.1 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spal vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Spal and Vicenza Virtus expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Spal and 0.98 for Vicenza Virtus, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Spal vs Vicenza Virtus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Spal's recent record stands at 1W 1D 2L from 4 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-W-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Spal, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Vicenza Virtus, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 4L across 4 games — 0.00 PPG, with L-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Spal by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vicenza Virtus heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Spal are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Vicenza Virtus are on 0.50 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 4 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spal
Early Season
Vicenza Virtus
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spal and Vicenza Virtus in coming into this match?
Spal have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while Vicenza Virtus have gone 0W 0D 4L in their last 4 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Spal
1
Draws
0
Vicenza Virtus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Vicenza Virtus?
From 2 meetings on record, Spal have won 1, Vicenza Virtus have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Spal and Vicenza Virtus last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2022, when Vicenza Virtus 1-1 Spal.
Who has won more matches between Spal and Vicenza Virtus?
Spal have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Spal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Vicenza Virtus see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spal 50%, Vicenza Virtus 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Spal) and 50% (Vicenza Virtus).
On the defensive side: Vicenza Virtus in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spal home games / Vicenza Virtus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spal play Vicenza Virtus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Spal's recent matches and 50% of Vicenza Virtus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Spal vs Vicenza Virtus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Spal's recent games and 50% of Vicenza Virtus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spal and Vicenza Virtus tend to score early?
Spal have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Vicenza Virtus in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Spal edge out Vicenza Virtus 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spal beat Vicenza Virtus 3-2 at Stadio Paolo Mazza, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spal 1.77 xG and Vicenza Virtus 0.98 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Spal beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Vicenza Virtus outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spal attack 1.37 / defence 1.02 against Vicenza Virtus attack 0.70 / defence 1.20, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spal 54% | Draw 26% | Vicenza Virtus 19%, with Spal to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spal 50%, Vicenza Virtus 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spal's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Vicenza Virtus's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Spal arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. Form held, and they took the win. Spal scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vicenza Virtus scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.