Cittadella 1-0 Pordenone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cittadella at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cittadella vs Pordenone encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cittadella and Pordenone meet at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato in Serie B, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 September 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Cittadella (all games): 2W 0D 1L across 3 Serie B fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 1.33 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Cittadella have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pordenone's overall Serie B record this term: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 3.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.33 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Pordenone have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Cittadella's 2.00 PPG return is 2.00 points per game ahead of Pordenone's 0.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Cittadella — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Pordenone — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 100% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Cittadella 33% | Pordenone 0%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cittadella 33% | Pordenone 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cittadella 2.07 xG and Pordenone 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cittadella attack 1.237 / defence 1.086 | Pordenone attack 0.696 / defence 1.594. League average goals — home 1.050 / away 1.334. Pordenone bring a strong defensive rating of 1.594 — this is suppressing Cittadella's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Cittadella games / 3 Pordenone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cittadella 60% | Draw 24% | Pordenone 16%. Fair-value odds: Cittadella 1.67 | Draw 4.17 | Pordenone 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Cittadella (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cittadella are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Cittadella 33% | Pordenone 0% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cittadella vs Pordenone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cittadella 60% | Draw 24% | Pordenone 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 57% | xG Cittadella 2.07 / Pordenone 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Cittadella attack 1.237 / def 1.086 | Pordenone attack 0.696 / def 1.594 | league avg home 1.050 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Cittadella (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Cittadella xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Pordenone xG
57%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cittadella vs Pordenone kick off?
Cittadella vs Pordenone kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What was the final score in Cittadella vs Pordenone?
Cittadella 1 - 0 Pordenone.
Where is Cittadella vs Pordenone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What competition is Cittadella vs Pordenone part of?
Cittadella vs Pordenone is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cittadella vs Pordenone?
Our statistical model gives Cittadella a 60% chance of winning, Pordenone a 16% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Cittadella the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cittadella vs Pordenone?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Cittadella and Pordenone will score (BTTS).
Will Cittadella vs Pordenone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Pordenone?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cittadella and Pordenone in?
Cittadella (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 W-W-L. Pordenone (all comps): 0W-0D-3L in 3 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 3.33 | L5 L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cittadella's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Pordenone's defensive record (1.59x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.07. Flip it around — Pordenone's attack (0.70x) against Cittadella's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cittadella Win
60%
1.67
24%
4.10
16%
6.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Cittadella xG
Total xG
3.08
1.01
Pordenone xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
6.37
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
13%
7.94
Win to Nil
22%
4.58
2%
50.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cittadella vs Pordenone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Cittadella and Pordenone expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Cittadella and 1.01 for Pordenone, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Cittadella vs Pordenone?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cittadella's recent record stands at 2W 0D 1L from 3 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Cittadella, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pordenone, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 3L across 3 games — 0.00 PPG, with L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Pordenone, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cittadella by 2.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pordenone heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Cittadella are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Pordenone are on 0.00 scored and 3.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pordenone in 0%.
Last 3 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cittadella
Early Season
Pordenone
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cittadella and Pordenone in coming into this match?
Cittadella have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 games (2.00 PPG), while Pordenone have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 (0.00 PPG).
Have Cittadella or Pordenone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cittadella have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Pordenone in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Cittadella
0
Draws
0
Pordenone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Pordenone?
From 2 meetings on record, Cittadella have won 2, Pordenone have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cittadella and Pordenone last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2022, when Pordenone 0-1 Cittadella.
Who has won more matches between Cittadella and Pordenone?
Cittadella have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cittadella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Pordenone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Cittadella) and 0% (Pordenone) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Cittadella) and 67% (Pordenone).
On the defensive side: Cittadella keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cittadella have failed to score in 33% of games; Pordenone in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cittadella home games / Pordenone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cittadella play Pordenone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Cittadella's recent matches and 0% of Pordenone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cittadella vs Pordenone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Cittadella's recent games and 67% of Pordenone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cittadella and Pordenone tend to score early?
Cittadella have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Pordenone in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cittadella edge out Pordenone 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cittadella beat Pordenone 1-0 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cittadella 2.07 xG and Pordenone 1.01 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cittadella fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Pordenone landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cittadella attack 1.24 / defence 1.09 against Pordenone attack 0.70 / defence 1.59, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cittadella 60% | Draw 24% | Pordenone 16%, with Cittadella to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cittadella 33%, Pordenone 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 17%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cittadella's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Pordenone's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 100% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Cittadella arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.00. Form held, and they took the win. Cittadella conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Pordenone conceded 1 against a 3.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.