Arezzo vs Empoli – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Empoli at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Arezzo vs Empoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 22 as Arezzo welcome Empoli to Citta di Arezzo. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 January 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Arezzo stand at 3W 1D 3L from 7 Serie B matches — 1.43 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.14 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Arezzo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Arezzo at Citta di Arezzo this season: 0W 1D 2L from 3 home games — 0.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.33 lags behind their overall 1.43 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Citta di Arezzo this season.
Across all Serie B games this season, Empoli have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Empoli away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Arezzo 1.43 PPG, Empoli 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Arezzo register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Empoli in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Arezzo, 0 for Empoli and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2026, ended 1–0 with Arezzo winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Arezzo trading profile (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
Empoli trading profile (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arezzo 57% versus Empoli 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arezzo 71% | Empoli 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arezzo 1.07 xG and Empoli 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arezzo attack 0.749 / defence 1.358 | Empoli attack 0.900 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.261. Arezzo's attack strength of 0.749 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Arezzo games / 45 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arezzo 25% | Draw 29% | Empoli 47%. Fair-value odds: Arezzo 4.00 | Draw 3.45 | Empoli 2.13. Empoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Empoli as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Empoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Arezzo 67% | Empoli 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arezzo vs Empoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Citta di Arezzo • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Jan 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arezzo 25% | Draw 29% | Empoli 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Arezzo 1.07 / Empoli 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Arezzo attack 0.749 / def 1.358 | Empoli attack 0.900 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Empoli (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Arezzo xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Empoli xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arezzo vs Empoli kick off?
Arezzo vs Empoli is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 23 January 2027 at Citta di Arezzo.
Where is Arezzo vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Citta di Arezzo.
What competition is Arezzo vs Empoli part of?
Arezzo vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Arezzo vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Arezzo a 25% chance of winning, Empoli a 47% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arezzo vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Arezzo and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Arezzo vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arezzo and Empoli?
Record (1 meetings): Arezzo 1W | Draws 0 | Empoli 0W.
What form are Arezzo and Empoli in?
Arezzo (all comps): 3W-1D-3L in 7 | 1.43 PPG | GF 1.14 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Empoli (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Arezzo's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Empoli's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. The same calculation in reverse, Empoli's attack versus Arezzo's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.8%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
25%
4.05
29%
3.49
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Arezzo xG
Total xG
2.61
1.54
Empoli xG
4.05
25%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
21%
4.67
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
5%
18.95
16%
6.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 11.4 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arezzo vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Arezzo and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Arezzo and 1.54 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Arezzo vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Arezzo's recent record stands at 3W 1D 3L from 7 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Arezzo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Empoli, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 5L across 7 games — 0.57 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Empoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Arezzo by 0.86 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Empoli heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Arezzo have managed 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — 0.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.43 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Empoli's away record stands at 1W 1D 1L across 3 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 0.57 PPG overall record — Empoli travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Empoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Arezzo are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 0.86 scored and 1.86 conceded.
Last 7 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arezzo
Early Season
Empoli
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arezzo and Empoli in coming into this match?
Arezzo have gone 3W 1D 3L in their last 7 games (1.43 PPG), while Empoli have gone 1W 1D 5L in their last 7 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arezzo at home or Empoli away?
Empoli's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arezzo at home: 0.33 PPG; Empoli away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 11 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Arezzo
0
Draws
0
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arezzo and Empoli?
From 1 meetings on record, Arezzo have won 1, Empoli have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Arezzo and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2026, when Empoli 0-1 Arezzo.
Who has won more matches between Arezzo and Empoli?
Arezzo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Arezzo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Arezzo at 67%, Empoli at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Arezzo) and 33% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Arezzo keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Empoli in 33%; Arezzo have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arezzo home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arezzo play Empoli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Arezzo's games and 67% of Empoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Arezzo vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Arezzo's recent games and 33% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Arezzo and Empoli tend to score early?
Arezzo have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Empoli in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.