Bari 0-3 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Venezia at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bari vs Venezia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Bari welcome Venezia to Stadio San Nicola in Serie B (matchday 35). Kick-off is Saturday 18 April 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Bari stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bari's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Venezia — last 10 games: 6W 4D 0L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Venezia have gone 5W 5D 0L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Venezia's 2.20 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Bari's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Bari's games and 80% of Venezia's (from Bari's last 10 home games and Venezia's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Bari, 3 for Venezia and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 2.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 24 Aug 2025, ended Bari 1–2 Venezia — a Venezia win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Bari trading profile (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Venezia trading profile (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bari 56% versus Venezia 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bari 43% | Venezia 50%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Bari surrender their half-time lead 42% of the time, while Venezia have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 1.12 xG and Venezia 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 0.956 / defence 1.211 | Venezia attack 1.236 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.093. Venezia have an above-average attack rating of 1.236, which lifts their away xG to 1.64. Bari's defence rating of 1.211 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Venezia's projected output up. Data: built from Bari's last 72 games and Venezia's last 34.
Result probabilities: Bari 24% | Draw 28% | Venezia 48%. Fair-value odds: Bari 4.15 | Draw 3.54 | Venezia 2.10. Venezia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Venezia as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Venezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Bari's last 10 home games and Venezia's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bari 60% (last 10 home games) | Venezia 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Venezia | Competition: Serie B, matchday 35 | Venue: Stadio San Nicola • Kick-off: Saturday 18 April 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 24% | Draw 28% | Venezia 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Bari 1.12 / Venezia 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 0.956 / def 1.211 | Venezia attack 1.236 / def 0.847 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Venezia (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Bari xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Venezia xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bari vs Venezia FAQs
What time does Bari vs Venezia kick off?
Bari vs Venezia kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Stadio San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Venezia?
Bari 0 - 3 Venezia.
Where is Bari vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Venezia part of?
Bari vs Venezia is a Serie B fixture (matchday 35) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 24% chance of winning, Venezia a 48% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Bari and Venezia will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bari vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bari's attack rating (0.96) and Venezia's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Venezia's attack versus Bari's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bari's last 72 games and Venezia's last 34 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
24%
4.15
28%
3.54
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Bari xG
Total xG
2.75
1.64
Venezia xG
4.15
24%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
19%
5.14
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
5%
21.31
16%
6.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 10.4 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.6 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bari vs Venezia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Bari and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Bari and 1.64 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bari come into this having played 72 games, going 18W 28D 26L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Venezia sit at 1.40 PPG from 72 outings (26W 23D 23L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bari on 1.14 PPG, Venezia on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bari's home form reads 13W 14D 9L across their last 36 home games, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Venezia have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 36 away games (6W 18D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bari are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.39 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Current Season
Venezia
Current Season
Bari (Home) vs Venezia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bari
Current Season
Venezia
Current Season
❓ Bari vs Venezia Form FAQs
What form are Bari and Venezia in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 18W 28D 26L in their last 72 games (1.14 PPG), while Venezia have gone 26W 23D 23L in their last 72 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Venezia away?
Bari's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.47 PPG; Venezia away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 18 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Venezia have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 25 Nov 2023, when Venezia won Bari 0-3 Venezia.
Bari's record when hosting Venezia specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Bari
0
Draws
4
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Bari vs Venezia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Venezia?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Bari have won 2, Venezia have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Venezia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 April 2026: Bari 0-3 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Bari and Venezia?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 54% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bari 64%, Venezia 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Bari) and 50% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Venezia in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bari vs Venezia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bari and Venezia matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Bari's games and 64% of Venezia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Bari and Venezia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Bari's recent games and 50% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bari and Venezia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Bari's recent matches and 61% of Venezia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Venezia run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Bari.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Bari 0-3 at Stadio San Nicola, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.12 xG and Venezia 1.64 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Bari fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Venezia outscored their 1.64 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 0.96 / defence 1.21 against Venezia attack 1.24 / defence 0.85, drawn from 72/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 24% | Draw 28% | Venezia 48%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 43%, Venezia 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Venezia's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bari 1.14 PPG, Venezia 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Venezia win broke the near-deadlock. Bari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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