Perugia 1-1 Ternana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ternana at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Perugia vs Ternana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Perugia and Ternana meet at Stadio Renato Curi in Serie B, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 December 2021 at 15:15 UTC.
Current Form
Perugia's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Perugia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Perugia have posted 3W 3D 2L at Stadio Renato Curi — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Ternana have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D D W D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ternana away from home this season: 2W 3D 3L from 8 away games — 1.12 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.62 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Perugia against 1.50 for Ternana. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Perugia half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Ternana half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Perugia 47% versus Ternana 59%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Perugia 24% | Ternana 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Perugia 1.19 xG and Ternana 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Perugia attack 0.868 / defence 1.007 | Ternana attack 1.057 / defence 1.391. League average goals — home 0.985 / away 1.234. Ternana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.391 — this is suppressing Perugia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Perugia games / 17 Ternana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Perugia 33% | Draw 29% | Ternana 39%. Fair-value odds: Perugia 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Ternana 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ternana are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ternana if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Perugia 50% | Ternana 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Perugia vs Ternana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Renato Curi • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Dec 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Perugia 33% | Draw 29% | Ternana 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Perugia 1.19 / Ternana 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Perugia attack 0.868 / def 1.007 | Ternana attack 1.057 / def 1.391 | league avg home 0.985 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Ternana (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Perugia xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Ternana xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Perugia vs Ternana kick off?
Perugia vs Ternana kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 19 December 2021 at Stadio Renato Curi.
What was the final score in Perugia vs Ternana?
Perugia 1 - 1 Ternana.
Where is Perugia vs Ternana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Curi.
What competition is Perugia vs Ternana part of?
Perugia vs Ternana is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Perugia vs Ternana?
Our statistical model gives Perugia a 33% chance of winning, Ternana a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ternana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Perugia vs Ternana?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Perugia and Ternana will score (BTTS).
Will Perugia vs Ternana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Ternana?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Perugia and Ternana in?
Perugia (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Ternana (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Perugia's attack rating (0.87) and Ternana's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ternana's attack (1.06x) against Perugia's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ternana Win
33%
3.06
29%
3.48
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Perugia xG
Total xG
2.50
1.31
Ternana xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
9%
11.38
12%
8.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 10.7 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Perugia vs Ternana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Perugia and Ternana expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Perugia and 1.31 for Ternana, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Perugia vs Ternana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Perugia's recent record stands at 6W 8D 3L from 17 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Perugia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ternana, meanwhile, have gone 6W 4D 7L across 17 games — 1.29 PPG, with D-D-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for Perugia against 1.29 for Ternana. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Perugia have managed 3W 3D 2L from 8 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ternana's away record stands at 2W 3D 3L across 8 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Perugia are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Ternana are on 1.53 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Defensively: Perugia have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Perugia
Blended
Ternana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Perugia and Ternana in coming into this match?
Perugia have gone 6W 8D 3L in their last 17 games (1.53 PPG), while Ternana have gone 6W 4D 7L in their last 17 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Perugia at home or Ternana away?
Perugia's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Perugia at home: 1.50 PPG; Ternana away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Perugia or Ternana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Perugia have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Ternana in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Perugia won 3-0 on 18 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Perugia have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ternana — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Perugia
1
Draws
2
Ternana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Ternana?
From 4 meetings on record, Perugia have won 1, Ternana have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Perugia and Ternana last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2023, when Perugia 3-0 Ternana.
Who has won more matches between Perugia and Ternana?
Ternana have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Perugia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Perugia 50%, Ternana 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 12% for Perugia and 50% for Ternana.
On the defensive side: Perugia keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Perugia home games / Ternana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Perugia play Ternana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Perugia's games and 75% of Ternana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Perugia vs Ternana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 12% of Perugia's recent games and 50% of Ternana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Perugia and Ternana tend to score early?
Perugia have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Ternana in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Perugia and Ternana share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Perugia and Ternana finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Renato Curi, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Perugia 1.19 xG and Ternana 1.31 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Perugia attack 0.87 / defence 1.01 against Ternana attack 1.06 / defence 1.39, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Perugia 33% | Draw 29% | Ternana 39%, with Ternana to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Perugia 24%, Ternana 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Perugia's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Ternana's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Perugia 1.53 PPG, Ternana 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.