Cosenza 0-2 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pisa at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cosenza vs Pisa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla plays host to Cosenza versus Pisa in Serie B, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Saturday 18 December 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cosenza have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cosenza at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla this season: 4W 1D 3L from 8 home games — 1.62 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.62 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Cosenza are significantly better at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla than their overall form suggests.
Pisa's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 2L across 8 road games this term (1.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Pisa are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Cosenza goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Pisa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 53% versus Pisa 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cosenza 35% | Pisa 24%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 0.85 xG and Pisa 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 0.837 / defence 1.071 | Pisa attack 0.892 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 0.963 / away 1.202. Data: 17 Cosenza games / 17 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 26% | Draw 32% | Pisa 42%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 3.85 | Draw 3.12 | Pisa 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Pisa as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pisa if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cosenza 38% | Pisa 62%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Dec 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 26% | Draw 32% | Pisa 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Cosenza 0.85 / Pisa 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 0.837 / def 1.071 | Pisa attack 0.892 / def 1.060 | league avg home 0.963 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Pisa (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Pisa xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Pisa kick off?
Cosenza vs Pisa kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 18 December 2021 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Pisa?
Cosenza 0 - 2 Pisa.
Where is Cosenza vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Pisa part of?
Cosenza vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 26% chance of winning, Pisa a 42% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Cosenza and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Pisa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cosenza and Pisa in?
Cosenza (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Pisa (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cosenza's attack at 0.84x the league average against Pisa's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 0.85 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pisa's attack (0.89x) against Cosenza's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
26%
3.78
32%
3.16
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.00
1.15
Pisa xG
3.78
26%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
43%
2.35
Win to Nil
8%
11.91
18%
5.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 15.5 | 8.9 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.2 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Cosenza and 1.15 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cosenza's recent record stands at 4W 4D 9L from 17 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 10W 5D 2L across 17 games — 2.06 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pisa by 1.12 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cosenza heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Cosenza have managed 4W 1D 3L from 8 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.94 PPG overall — Cosenza are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Pisa's away record stands at 4W 2D 2L across 8 trips, a 1.75 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cosenza are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.41 scored and 0.71 conceded.
Defensively: Pisa in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Pisa in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 4W 4D 9L in their last 17 games (0.94 PPG), while Pisa have gone 10W 5D 2L in their last 17 (2.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Pisa away?
Pisa's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.62 PPG; Pisa away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Cosenza or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cosenza have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Pisa in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pisa won 0-3 on 29 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cosenza have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Pisa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Cosenza
3
Draws
3
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Pisa?
From 8 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 2, Pisa have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when Cosenza 0-3 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Pisa?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 38%, Pisa 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Cosenza and 38% for Pisa.
On the defensive side: Cosenza have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Cosenza's recent matches and 62% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cosenza vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Cosenza's recent games and 38% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Pisa tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Pisa in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pisa cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cosenza.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Cosenza 0-2 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 0.85 xG and Pisa 1.15 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cosenza fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Pisa outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 0.84 / defence 1.07 against Pisa attack 0.89 / defence 1.06, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 26% | Draw 32% | Pisa 42%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 35%, Pisa 24%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pisa's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 0.94. That form edge translated into the three points. Cosenza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pisa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.