Venezia 1-3 Lazio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Venezia at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Venezia vs Lazio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Pierluigi Penzo plays host to Venezia versus Lazio in Serie A, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Wednesday 22 December 2021 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
Venezia's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Venezia's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 4L across 8 games at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lazio have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lazio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Lazio have posted 2W 2D 5L from 9 away outings — 0.89 PPG. Away from home they average 1.22 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.89 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Venezia, 1.40 for Lazio — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Venezia have seen both teams score in 75% of their games, Lazio in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Venezia half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Lazio half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 61%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Venezia 56% and Lazio 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 44% | Lazio 78%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.79 xG and Lazio 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.961 / defence 1.354 | Lazio attack 0.779 / defence 1.534. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.435. Lazio bring a strong defensive rating of 1.534 — this is suppressing Venezia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Venezia games / 18 Lazio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 44% | Draw 23% | Lazio 33%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 2.27 | Draw 4.35 | Lazio 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Venezia are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Venezia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.30 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Venezia 75% | Lazio 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Lazio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Dec 2021, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 44% | Draw 23% | Lazio 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Venezia 1.79 / Lazio 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.961 / def 1.354 | Lazio attack 0.779 / def 1.534 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.435 • Poisson stance: Venezia (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Lazio xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Lazio kick off?
Venezia vs Lazio kicked off at 15:30 on Wednesday 22 December 2021 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Lazio?
Venezia 1 - 3 Lazio.
Where is Venezia vs Lazio being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Lazio part of?
Venezia vs Lazio is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Lazio?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 44% chance of winning, Lazio a 33% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Lazio?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Venezia and Lazio will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Lazio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Lazio?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Venezia and Lazio in?
Venezia (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Lazio (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Venezia's attack at 0.96x the league average against Lazio's defence at 1.53x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lazio's attack (0.78x) against Venezia's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
44%
2.25
23%
4.39
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Venezia xG
Total xG
3.30
1.51
Lazio xG
2.25
44%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
17%
5.99
Win to Nil
10%
10.22
5%
18.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.0 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Lazio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Venezia and Lazio expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Venezia and 1.51 for Lazio, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Lazio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Venezia come into this having played 18 games, going 4W 5D 9L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-D. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lazio sit at 1.56 PPG from 18 outings (8W 4D 6L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Lazio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lazio carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Venezia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Venezia's home form reads 2W 2D 4L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Lazio have taken 0.62 points per game from 8 outings (1W 2D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.56 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lazio's season.
Attack vs Defence
Venezia are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Lazio are on 2.00 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lazio in 67%.
Last 18 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Blended
Lazio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Lazio in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 4W 5D 9L in their last 18 games (0.94 PPG), while Lazio have gone 8W 4D 6L in their last 18 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Lazio away?
Venezia's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 1.00 PPG; Lazio away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Venezia have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Lazio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Venezia
1
Draws
3
Lazio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Lazio?
From 4 meetings on record, Venezia have won 0, Lazio have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Lazio last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when Venezia 0-0 Lazio.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Lazio?
Lazio have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Venezia, 62% for Lazio — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Venezia and 75% for Lazio. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lazio in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Lazio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Lazio?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Venezia's games and 62% of Lazio's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Venezia vs Lazio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Venezia's matches and 75% of Lazio's.
Do Venezia and Lazio tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Lazio in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lazio cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Venezia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lazio beat Venezia 1-3 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.79 xG and Lazio 1.51 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Lazio outscored their 1.51 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 0.96 / defence 1.35 against Lazio attack 0.78 / defence 1.53, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 44% | Draw 23% | Lazio 33%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Lazio win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 44%, Lazio 78%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Lazio's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lazio arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.94. Form held, and they took the win. Venezia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lazio (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.