Lazio 3-3 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lazio at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lazio vs Empoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lazio and Empoli meet at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 6 January 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Lazio's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lazio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lazio at Stadio Olimpico this season: 6W 2D 1L from 9 home games — 2.22 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.78 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.22 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Lazio are significantly better at Stadio Olimpico than their overall form suggests.
Empoli (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Empoli's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 2L across 9 road games this term (1.89 PPG). Away from home they average 1.56 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Lazio, 0 for Empoli and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 3–1 with Lazio winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Lazio — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 63%.
Empoli — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lazio 68% and Empoli 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Lazio 79% | Empoli 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lazio 1.87 xG and Empoli 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lazio attack 1.437 / defence 1.214 | Empoli attack 0.916 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.168 / away 1.478. Lazio carry an above-average attack strength of 1.437 — their λ of 1.87 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 19 Lazio games / 19 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lazio 44% | Draw 22% | Empoli 34%. Fair-value odds: Lazio 2.27 | Draw 4.55 | Empoli 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.87 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lazio at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lazio if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.51 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lazio 67% | Empoli 56% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lazio vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Thursday 6 Jan 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lazio 44% | Draw 22% | Empoli 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG Lazio 1.87 / Empoli 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Lazio attack 1.437 / def 1.214 | Empoli attack 0.916 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.168 / away 1.478 • Poisson stance: Lazio (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Lazio xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Empoli xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lazio vs Empoli kick off?
Lazio vs Empoli kicked off at 13:30 on Thursday 6 January 2022 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in Lazio vs Empoli?
Lazio 3 - 3 Empoli.
Where is Lazio vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is Lazio vs Empoli part of?
Lazio vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lazio vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Lazio a 44% chance of winning, Empoli a 34% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lazio vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Lazio and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Lazio vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Empoli?
Record (1 meetings): Lazio 1W | Draws 0 | Empoli 0W.
What form are Lazio and Empoli in?
Lazio (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Empoli (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Lazio's attack rating (1.44) and Empoli's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.87 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Empoli's attack (0.92x) against Lazio's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.64.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
44%
2.30
22%
4.52
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Lazio xG
Total xG
3.51
1.64
Empoli xG
2.30
44%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.14
Clean Sheet
19%
5.17
15%
6.48
Win to Nil
8%
11.86
5%
18.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 9.2 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lazio vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Lazio and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Lazio and 1.64 for Empoli, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Lazio vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lazio come into this having played 19 games, going 9W 4D 6L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-W. The sample for Lazio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Empoli sit at 1.42 PPG from 19 outings (8W 3D 8L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.63 PPG for Lazio against 1.42 for Empoli. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Lazio's home form reads 6W 2D 1L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.22 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.63 PPG overall — Lazio are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Empoli have taken 1.89 points per game from 9 outings (5W 2D 2L). That's actually stronger than their 1.42 PPG overall record — Empoli travel well.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lazio are averaging 2.05 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 1.58 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lazio have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Empoli in 68%.
Last 19 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lazio
Blended
Empoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lazio and Empoli in coming into this match?
Lazio have gone 9W 4D 6L in their last 19 games (1.63 PPG), while Empoli have gone 8W 3D 8L in their last 19 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lazio at home or Empoli away?
Lazio's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lazio at home: 2.22 PPG; Empoli away: 1.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Lazio have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lazio have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Empoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Lazio
2
Draws
0
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Empoli?
From 8 meetings on record, Lazio have won 6, Empoli have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lazio and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2025, when Empoli 0-1 Lazio.
Who has won more matches between Lazio and Empoli?
Lazio have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lazio 67%, Empoli 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Lazio and 44% for Empoli. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Empoli in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lazio home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lazio play Empoli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Lazio's games and 56% of Empoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lazio vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Lazio's matches and 44% of Empoli's.
Do Lazio and Empoli tend to score early?
Lazio have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Empoli in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lazio and Empoli share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 20, as Lazio and Empoli drew 3-3 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lazio 1.87 xG and Empoli 1.64 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Lazio beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Empoli outscored their 1.64 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lazio attack 1.44 / defence 1.21 against Empoli attack 0.92 / defence 1.11, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lazio 44% | Draw 22% | Empoli 34%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 74% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lazio 79%, Empoli 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lazio's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Empoli's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lazio 1.63 PPG, Empoli 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lazio (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Empoli (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.