AS Roma 1-1 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates AS Roma at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this AS Roma vs Sampdoria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 19 as AS Roma welcome Sampdoria to Stadio Olimpico. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 22 December 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
AS Roma — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Roma's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 2L across 9 games at Stadio Olimpico this term (2.11 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico. Their home PPG of 2.11 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — AS Roma are significantly better at Stadio Olimpico than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Sampdoria have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Sampdoria have posted 3W 1D 4L from 8 away outings — 1.25 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (AS Roma) versus 1.30 (Sampdoria). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
AS Roma in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Sampdoria in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 44% versus Sampdoria 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (AS Roma 56% | Sampdoria 78%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.39 xG and Sampdoria 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 0.858 / defence 0.848 | Sampdoria attack 0.882 / defence 1.348. League average goals — home 1.198 / away 1.463. Sampdoria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.348 — this is suppressing AS Roma's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 AS Roma games / 18 Sampdoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 44% | Draw 27% | Sampdoria 30%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Sampdoria 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AS Roma are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate: AS Roma 33% | Sampdoria 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Dec 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 44% | Draw 27% | Sampdoria 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG AS Roma 1.39 / Sampdoria 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 0.858 / def 0.848 | Sampdoria attack 0.882 / def 1.348 | league avg home 1.198 / away 1.463 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Sampdoria xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Sampdoria kick off?
AS Roma vs Sampdoria kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 22 December 2021 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Sampdoria?
AS Roma 1 - 1 Sampdoria.
Where is AS Roma vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Sampdoria part of?
AS Roma vs Sampdoria is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 44% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both AS Roma and Sampdoria will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Sampdoria?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AS Roma and Sampdoria in?
AS Roma (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Sampdoria (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
AS Roma's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Sampdoria's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Sampdoria's attack versus AS Roma's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
44%
2.30
27%
3.73
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.48
1.09
Sampdoria xG
2.30
44%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
15%
6.86
7%
13.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.7 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for AS Roma and 1.09 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AS Roma come into this having played 18 games, going 10W 1D 7L for 1.72 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sampdoria sit at 1.06 PPG from 18 outings (5W 4D 9L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Sampdoria — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
AS Roma's home form reads 5W 1D 2L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Sampdoria have taken 1.25 points per game from 8 outings (3W 1D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AS Roma are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 1.44 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sampdoria in 67%.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Blended
Sampdoria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 10W 1D 7L in their last 18 games (1.72 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 5W 4D 9L in their last 18 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Sampdoria away?
AS Roma's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.00 PPG; Sampdoria away: 1.25 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Sampdoria been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Sampdoria in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AS Roma and Sampdoria runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: AS Roma have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Apr 2023, when AS Roma won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AS Roma's record when hosting Sampdoria specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
AS Roma
1
Draws
0
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Sampdoria?
From 4 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 3, Sampdoria have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Sampdoria last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2023, when AS Roma 3-0 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Sampdoria?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 25%, Sampdoria 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (AS Roma) and 75% (Sampdoria). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Sampdoria in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Sampdoria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of AS Roma's recent matches and 50% of Sampdoria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Sampdoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 38% of AS Roma's matches and 75% of Sampdoria's.
Do AS Roma and Sampdoria tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Sampdoria in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AS Roma and Sampdoria share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma and Sampdoria finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.39 xG and Sampdoria 1.09 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 0.86 / defence 0.85 against Sampdoria attack 0.88 / defence 1.35, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 44% | Draw 27% | Sampdoria 30%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 56%, Sampdoria 78%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Sampdoria's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.