Genoa 1-0 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cagliari at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genoa vs Cagliari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Genoa host Cagliari at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Serie A, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 24 April 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Genoa — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Genoa have gone 1W 5D 4L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cagliari stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Cagliari have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Genoa at 0.90 PPG versus Cagliari's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Genoa, 0 for Cagliari and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2021, ended 3–2 with Genoa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Genoa in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
Cagliari in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 46% versus Cagliari 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 42% | Cagliari 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.01 xG and Cagliari 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.617 / defence 1.178 | Cagliari attack 0.712 / defence 1.543. League average goals — home 1.066 / away 1.258. Genoa's attack strength of 0.617 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Cagliari bring a strong defensive rating of 1.543 — this is suppressing Genoa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Genoa games / 33 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 32% | Draw 33% | Cagliari 34%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 3.12 | Draw 3.03 | Cagliari 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cagliari as the most likely outcome at 34% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cagliari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 30% | Cagliari 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Apr 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 32% | Draw 33% | Cagliari 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Genoa 1.01 / Cagliari 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.617 / def 1.178 | Cagliari attack 0.712 / def 1.543 | league avg home 1.066 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Cagliari (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Cagliari xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Cagliari kick off?
Genoa vs Cagliari kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 24 April 2022 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Cagliari?
Genoa 1 - 0 Cagliari.
Where is Genoa vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Cagliari part of?
Genoa vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 32% chance of winning, Cagliari a 34% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Cagliari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Genoa and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Cagliari?
Record (1 meetings): Genoa 1W | Draws 0 | Cagliari 0W.
What form are Genoa and Cagliari in?
Genoa (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Cagliari (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Genoa's attack at 0.62x the league average against Cagliari's defence at 1.54x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cagliari's attack versus Genoa's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cagliari Win
32%
3.10
33%
2.99
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.07
1.05
Cagliari xG
3.10
32%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
11%
8.89
12%
8.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 13.3 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Genoa and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Genoa and 1.05 for Cagliari, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Cagliari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Genoa's recent record stands at 2W 16D 15L from 33 games, a 0.67 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Cagliari, meanwhile, have gone 6W 10D 17L across 33 games — 0.85 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Genoa on 0.67 PPG, Cagliari on 0.85. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Genoa have managed 1W 8D 7L from 16 games — 0.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cagliari's away record stands at 3W 4D 9L across 16 trips, a 0.81 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Genoa are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 0.94 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cagliari in 61%.
Last 33 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Current Season
Cagliari
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 2W 16D 15L in their last 33 games (0.67 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 6W 10D 17L in their last 33 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Cagliari away?
Cagliari's away record (0.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 0.69 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 12 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Apr 2024, when Genoa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Genoa's record when hosting Cagliari specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Genoa
5
Draws
1
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Cagliari?
From 10 meetings on record, Genoa have won 4, Cagliari have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 12 January 2026, when Genoa 3-0 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Cagliari?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Genoa see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 44%, Cagliari 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Genoa) and 56% (Cagliari).
On the defensive side: Genoa keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Genoa have failed to score in 50% of games; Cagliari in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Cagliari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Genoa's recent matches and 50% of Cagliari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Genoa's recent games and 56% of Cagliari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Cagliari tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Genoa defy the odds to beat Cagliari 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa beat Cagliari 1-0 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.01 xG and Cagliari 1.05 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cagliari landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.62 / defence 1.18 against Cagliari attack 0.71 / defence 1.54, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 32% | Draw 33% | Cagliari 34%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Genoa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 42%, Cagliari 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Cagliari's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genoa 0.67 PPG, Cagliari 0.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genoa win broke the near-deadlock. Genoa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. Cagliari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.