Udinese 1-0 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Udinese at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Udinese vs Parma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Udinese host Parma at Bluenergy Stadium in Serie A (matchday 27). Kick-off is Saturday 1 March 2025 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Udinese — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Udinese's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Parma have recorded 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Parma away from home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Udinese have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Udinese, 0 for Parma and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 5.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 16 Sep 2024, ended Udinese 3–2 Parma — a Udinese win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Udinese in-play tendencies (last 64 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Parma in-play tendencies (last 64 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Udinese 58% and Parma 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 44% | Parma 55%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Udinese surrender their half-time lead 57% of the time, while Parma have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.90 xG and Parma 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 1.093 / defence 1.056 | Parma attack 0.838 / defence 1.316. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.207. Parma's defence rating of 1.316 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Udinese's projected output up. Data: built from Udinese's last 64 games and Parma's last 26.
Result probabilities: Udinese 55% | Draw 25% | Parma 20%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 1.81 | Draw 3.96 | Parma 5.13. The model has a clear lean to Udinese (55%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Udinese are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Udinese 40% (last 10 home games) | Parma 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Parma | Competition: Serie A, matchday 27 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 March 2025 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 55% | Draw 25% | Parma 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Udinese 1.90 / Parma 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 1.093 / def 1.056 | Parma attack 0.838 / def 1.316 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Udinese (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Parma xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Udinese vs Parma FAQs
What time does Udinese vs Parma kick off?
Udinese vs Parma kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Saturday 1 March 2025 at Bluenergy Stadium.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Parma?
Udinese 1 - 0 Parma.
Where is Udinese vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium.
What competition is Udinese vs Parma part of?
Udinese vs Parma is a Serie A fixture (matchday 27) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 55% chance of winning, Parma a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Udinese and Parma will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Udinese vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Udinese's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Parma's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.90. The same calculation in reverse, Parma's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Udinese's last 64 games and Parma's last 26 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
55%
1.81
25%
3.96
20%
5.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.97
1.07
Parma xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
5.13
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
15%
6.69
Win to Nil
19%
5.27
3%
34.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 10.4 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Udinese vs Parma Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Udinese and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Udinese and 1.07 for Parma, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Parma?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Udinese come into this having played 64 games, going 16W 25D 23L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, Parma sit at 1.55 PPG from 64 outings (26W 21D 17L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Parma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Udinese — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Udinese's home form reads 7W 13D 11L across their last 31 home games, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Parma have taken 1.42 points per game from their last 31 away games (11W 11D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Udinese are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.53 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Parma in 66%.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Blended
Parma
Blended
Udinese (Home) vs Parma (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Udinese
Blended
Parma
Blended
❓ Udinese vs Parma Form FAQs
What form are Udinese and Parma in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 16W 25D 23L in their last 64 games (1.14 PPG), while Parma have gone 26W 21D 17L in their last 64 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Parma away?
Parma's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.10 PPG; Parma away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 5 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2024. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 28 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Udinese's record when hosting Parma specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Udinese
1
Draws
1
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Udinese vs Parma H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Parma?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Udinese have won 3, Parma have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Udinese and Parma last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 October 2026: Parma 0-0 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Parma?
Udinese have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 62% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 61%, Parma 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Udinese) and 61% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Parma in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Udinese vs Parma Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Udinese and Parma matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Udinese's games and 61% of Parma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Udinese and Parma matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Udinese's recent games and 61% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Parma matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Udinese's recent matches and 64% of Parma's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Udinese edge out Parma 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese beat Parma 1-0 at Bluenergy Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.90 xG and Parma 1.07 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Udinese fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Parma landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 1.09 / defence 1.06 against Parma attack 0.84 / defence 1.32, drawn from 64/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 55% | Draw 25% | Parma 20%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 44%, Parma 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Parma's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with Udinese winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Udinese (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Parma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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