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Poisson rates Bologna at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Parma vs Bologna encounter.

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Match Analysis

Parma host Bologna at Stadio Ennio Tardini in Serie A, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 February 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Serie A games this season, Parma have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Parma at Stadio Ennio Tardini this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Bologna's away record: 4W 5D 1L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bologna — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Parma register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Bologna in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Parma, 0 for Bologna and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Parma trading profile (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).

Bologna trading profile (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 68% versus Bologna 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 56% | Bologna 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.11 xG and Bologna 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 0.846 / defence 1.366 | Bologna attack 1.057 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.270. Data: 25 Parma games / 62 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Parma 21% | Draw 27% | Bologna 52%. Fair-value odds: Parma 4.76 | Draw 3.70 | Bologna 1.92. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Parma 80% | Bologna 60% BTTS from recent games.

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