Fiorentina 1-0 Lecce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fiorentina at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fiorentina vs Lecce fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fiorentina host Lecce at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Serie A, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 28 February 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Fiorentina have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Artemio Franchi this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Fiorentina are significantly better at Stadio Artemio Franchi than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lecce stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lecce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lecce away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Fiorentina) versus 0.90 (Lecce). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Fiorentina have won 2, Lecce 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2024, ended 6–0 with Fiorentina winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Fiorentina trading profile (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Lecce trading profile (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 55% versus Lecce 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 55% | Lecce 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.67 xG and Lecce 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.114 / defence 1.008 | Lecce attack 0.853 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.224. Data: 64 Fiorentina games / 64 Lecce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 50% | Draw 27% | Lecce 22%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Lecce 4.55. Fiorentina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fiorentina at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fiorentina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Fiorentina 60% | Lecce 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Lecce | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Friday 28 Feb 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 50% | Draw 27% | Lecce 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Fiorentina 1.67 / Lecce 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.114 / def 1.008 | Lecce attack 0.853 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Lecce xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Lecce kick off?
Fiorentina vs Lecce kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 28 February 2025 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Lecce?
Fiorentina 1 - 0 Lecce.
Where is Fiorentina vs Lecce being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Lecce part of?
Fiorentina vs Lecce is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Lecce?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 50% chance of winning, Lecce a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Lecce?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Fiorentina and Lecce will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Lecce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Lecce?
Record (5 meetings): Fiorentina 2W | Draws 2 | Lecce 1W.
What form are Fiorentina and Lecce in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Lecce (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fiorentina's attack at 1.11x the league average against Lecce's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lecce's attack versus Fiorentina's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
50%
1.99
27%
3.66
22%
4.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.72
1.05
Lecce xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
4.47
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
19%
5.31
Win to Nil
18%
5.69
4%
23.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.6 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Lecce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Lecce expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.05 for Lecce, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Lecce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fiorentina's recent record stands at 29W 15D 20L from 64 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lecce, meanwhile, have gone 14W 21D 29L across 64 games — 0.98 PPG, with L-W-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Lecce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fiorentina by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lecce heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Fiorentina have managed 17W 8D 7L from 32 games — 1.84 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lecce's away record stands at 5W 10D 17L across 32 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fiorentina are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Lecce are on 0.78 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Blended
Lecce
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Lecce in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 29W 15D 20L in their last 64 games (1.59 PPG), while Lecce have gone 14W 21D 29L in their last 64 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Lecce away?
Fiorentina's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 1.84 PPG; Lecce away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fiorentina and Lecce runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 20 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Oct 2024, when Fiorentina won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fiorentina's record when hosting Lecce specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Fiorentina
3
Draws
2
Lecce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Lecce?
From 8 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 3, Lecce have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Lecce last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2026, when Lecce 1-1 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Lecce?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Lecce see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 62%, Lecce 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Fiorentina) and 38% (Lecce).
On the defensive side: Lecce in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Lecce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Lecce?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Fiorentina's recent matches and 41% of Lecce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fiorentina vs Lecce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 69% of Fiorentina's recent games and 38% of Lecce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fiorentina and Lecce tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Lecce in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fiorentina edge out Lecce 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Lecce 1-0 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.67 xG and Lecce 1.05 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lecce landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.11 / defence 1.01 against Lecce attack 0.85 / defence 1.12, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 50% | Draw 27% | Lecce 22%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 55%, Lecce 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Lecce's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.98. That form edge translated into the three points. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.