Napoli 1-1 Inter – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Inter at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Napoli vs Inter fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Inter travel to Stadio Diego Armando Maradona to take on Napoli. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 March 2025, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Napoli stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Napoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Inter — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Inter, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inter away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Napoli at 2.10 PPG versus Inter's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Napoli's 30% rate and Inter's 10% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Napoli, 2 for Inter and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Napoli trading profile (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Inter trading profile (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Napoli 52% versus Inter 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Napoli 53% | Inter 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Napoli 1.00 xG and Inter 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Napoli attack 0.998 / defence 0.792 | Inter attack 1.424 / defence 0.758. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.210. Inter's defence strength of 0.758 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Inter have an above-average attack strength of 1.424 — the away xG of 1.36 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Napoli's defence rating of 0.792 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 64 Napoli games / 64 Inter games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Napoli 26% | Draw 31% | Inter 44%. Fair-value odds: Napoli 3.85 | Draw 3.23 | Inter 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Inter at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Inter offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Napoli 30% | Inter 10% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Napoli vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Mar 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Napoli 26% | Draw 31% | Inter 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Napoli 1.00 / Inter 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Napoli attack 0.998 / def 0.792 | Inter attack 1.424 / def 0.758 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Inter (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Napoli xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Inter xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Napoli vs Inter kick off?
Napoli vs Inter kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 1 March 2025 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What was the final score in Napoli vs Inter?
Napoli 1 - 1 Inter.
Where is Napoli vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What competition is Napoli vs Inter part of?
Napoli vs Inter is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Napoli vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives Napoli a 26% chance of winning, Inter a 44% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Napoli vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Napoli and Inter will score (BTTS).
Will Napoli vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Inter?
Record (6 meetings): Napoli 1W | Draws 3 | Inter 2W.
What form are Napoli and Inter in?
Napoli (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Inter (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Napoli's attack at 1.00x the league average against Inter's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Inter's attack versus Napoli's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.2%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
26%
3.87
31%
3.26
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Napoli xG
Total xG
2.37
1.36
Inter xG
3.87
26%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
26%
3.92
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
7%
15.17
16%
6.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Napoli vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Napoli and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Napoli and 1.36 for Inter, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Napoli vs Inter?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Napoli's recent record stands at 30W 19D 15L from 64 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Napoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Inter, meanwhile, have gone 46W 13D 5L across 64 games — 2.36 PPG, with D-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Inter is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Inter by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Napoli heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Napoli have managed 15W 8D 8L from 31 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Inter's away record stands at 22W 6D 3L across 31 trips, a 2.32 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Napoli are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 2.31 scored and 0.72 conceded.
Defensively: Inter in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Napoli
Blended
Inter
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Napoli and Inter in coming into this match?
Napoli have gone 30W 19D 15L in their last 64 games (1.70 PPG), while Inter have gone 46W 13D 5L in their last 64 (2.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Napoli at home or Inter away?
Inter's away record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Napoli at home: 1.71 PPG; Inter away: 2.32 PPG.
Have Napoli or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Inter in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Napoli and Inter runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Dec 2023, when Inter won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Napoli's record when hosting Inter specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Napoli
5
Draws
3
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Inter?
From 10 meetings on record, Napoli have won 2, Inter have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Napoli and Inter last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Inter 3-2 Napoli.
Who has won more matches between Napoli and Inter?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Napoli 52%, Inter 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Napoli) and 61% (Inter). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Inter in 52%; Napoli have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Napoli home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Napoli play Inter?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Napoli's recent matches and 39% of Inter's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Napoli vs Inter usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Napoli's matches and 61% of Inter's.
Do Napoli and Inter tend to score early?
Napoli have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Inter in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Napoli and Inter share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Napoli and Inter finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Napoli 1.00 xG and Inter 1.36 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Napoli attack 1.00 / defence 0.79 against Inter attack 1.42 / defence 0.76, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Napoli 26% | Draw 31% | Inter 44%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Napoli 53%, Inter 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Napoli's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Inter's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 1.70. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Inter (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.35 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.