Udinese vs Bologna – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Udinese at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Udinese vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bologna make the trip to Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli to face Udinese in Serie A, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 31 January 2027 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Udinese (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Udinese have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli, Udinese have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Bologna have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bologna away from home this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Udinese against 1.40 for Bologna. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Across the last 10 meetings, Bologna have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Udinese's 1, with 5 draws in the mix.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2026, ended 0–1 with Bologna winning.
It is worth noting that Bologna have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Udinese — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Bologna — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 48% versus Bologna 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 45% | Bologna 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.06 xG and Bologna 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.942 / defence 0.893 | Bologna attack 0.938 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.233. Data: 40 Udinese games / 40 Bologna games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Udinese 36% | Draw 30% | Bologna 34%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Bologna 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Udinese are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Udinese if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 20% | Bologna 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Jan 2027, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 36% | Draw 30% | Bologna 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Udinese 1.06 / Bologna 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.942 / def 0.893 | Bologna attack 0.938 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Udinese (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Bologna xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Bologna kick off?
Udinese vs Bologna is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 31 January 2027 at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
Where is Udinese vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
What competition is Udinese vs Bologna part of?
Udinese vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 36% chance of winning, Bologna a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Udinese and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Bologna?
Record (10 meetings): Udinese 1W | Draws 5 | Bologna 4W.
What form are Udinese and Bologna in?
Udinese (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Bologna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Udinese's attack at 0.94x the league average against Bologna's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bologna's attack (0.94x) against Udinese's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
36%
2.81
30%
3.33
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.09
1.03
Bologna xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
13%
7.90
12%
8.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 12.8 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Udinese and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Udinese and 1.03 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Udinese come into this having played 40 games, going 15W 9D 16L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Udinese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Bologna sit at 1.40 PPG from 40 outings (16W 8D 16L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Bologna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Udinese against 1.40 for Bologna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Udinese's home form reads 6W 6D 8L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Bologna have taken 1.70 points per game from 20 outings (10W 4D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Udinese are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.23 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Early Season
Bologna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Bologna in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 15W 9D 16L in their last 40 games (1.35 PPG), while Bologna have gone 16W 8D 16L in their last 40 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Bologna away?
Bologna's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.20 PPG; Bologna away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Udinese or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Udinese have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Bologna in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Bologna have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bologna won 3-0 on 2 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Udinese have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bologna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Udinese
5
Draws
4
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Bologna?
From 10 meetings on record, Udinese have won 1, Bologna have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Bologna 1-0 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Bologna?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 40%, Bologna 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Udinese) and 50% (Bologna).
On the defensive side: Udinese have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Bologna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Udinese's recent matches and 55% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Udinese vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Udinese's recent games and 50% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Bologna tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Bologna in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.