Cagliari vs Parma – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Cagliari (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cagliari face Parma.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 22 as Cagliari welcome Parma to Unipol Domus. Kick-off is set for Sunday 31 January 2027 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Cagliari — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Cagliari have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cagliari's home record at Unipol Domus: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Unipol Domus this season.
Across all Serie A games this season, Parma have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Parma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Parma have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Cagliari carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Cagliari: 5 wins from 9 previous clashes against 1 for Parma, with 3 draws across those contests.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2026, ended 1–0 with Cagliari winning.
The historical record gives Cagliari a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Cagliari in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Parma in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 48% versus Parma 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cagliari 46% | Parma 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.31 xG and Parma 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.828 / defence 0.842 | Parma attack 0.727 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.240. Data: 44 Cagliari games / 44 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 50% | Draw 29% | Parma 22%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Parma 4.55. Cagliari hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cagliari are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cagliari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cagliari 40% | Parma 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Parma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Jan 2027, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 50% | Draw 29% | Parma 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 39% | xG Cagliari 1.31 / Parma 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 0.828 / def 0.842 | Parma attack 0.727 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Cagliari (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Parma xG
39%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Parma kick off?
Cagliari vs Parma is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 31 January 2027 at Unipol Domus.
Where is Cagliari vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Parma part of?
Cagliari vs Parma is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 50% chance of winning, Parma a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cagliari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Cagliari and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Parma?
Record (9 meetings): Cagliari 5W | Draws 3 | Parma 1W.
What form are Cagliari and Parma in?
Cagliari (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Parma (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cagliari's attack at 0.83x the league average against Parma's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Parma's attack versus Cagliari's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cagliari Win
50%
2.02
29%
3.48
22%
4.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.07
0.76
Parma xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
4.61
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
23%
4.31
6%
17.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 12.6 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Cagliari and 0.76 for Parma, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cagliari's recent record stands at 15W 11D 18L from 44 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Cagliari, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Parma, meanwhile, have gone 12W 13D 19L across 44 games — 1.11 PPG, with L-D-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Parma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cagliari on 1.27 PPG, Parma on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cagliari have managed 8W 5D 9L from 22 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Parma's away record stands at 6W 6D 10L across 22 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Cagliari are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 0.73 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Early Season
Parma
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Parma in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 15W 11D 18L in their last 44 games (1.27 PPG), while Parma have gone 12W 13D 19L in their last 44 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Parma away?
Cagliari's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.32 PPG; Parma away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cagliari and Parma runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cagliari's record when hosting Parma specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Cagliari
3
Draws
1
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Parma?
From 9 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 5, Parma have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Parma 0-1 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Parma?
Cagliari have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cagliari see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Parma see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Cagliari 36% BTTS, Parma 32%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 32% for Cagliari and 32% for Parma.
On the defensive side: Cagliari keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Parma in 36%; Cagliari have failed to score in 36% of games; Parma in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Parma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Cagliari's recent matches and 32% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cagliari vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Cagliari's recent games and 32% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.