Cagliari 0-4 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Udinese at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cagliari vs Udinese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cagliari and Udinese meet at Unipol Domus in Serie A, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 December 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Cagliari's overall Serie A record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cagliari's home record at Unipol Domus: 1W 4D 4L from 9 Serie A appearances (0.78 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 89% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Udinese have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Udinese have posted 1W 3D 4L from 8 away outings — 0.75 PPG. Away from home they average 1.38 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Cagliari have seen both teams score in 89% of their games, Udinese in 62%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Cagliari goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Udinese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cagliari 65% and Udinese 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 59% | Udinese 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.50 xG and Udinese 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.855 / defence 1.283 | Udinese attack 0.859 / defence 1.403. League average goals — home 1.254 / away 1.460. Udinese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.403 — this is suppressing Cagliari's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Cagliari games / 17 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 36% | Draw 24% | Udinese 40%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 2.78 | Draw 4.17 | Udinese 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Udinese at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Udinese if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cagliari 89% | Udinese 62% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Dec 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 36% | Draw 24% | Udinese 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Cagliari 1.50 / Udinese 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 0.855 / def 1.283 | Udinese attack 0.859 / def 1.403 | league avg home 1.254 / away 1.460 • Poisson stance: Udinese (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Udinese xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Udinese kick off?
Cagliari vs Udinese kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 18 December 2021 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Udinese?
Cagliari 0 - 4 Udinese.
Where is Cagliari vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Udinese part of?
Cagliari vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 36% chance of winning, Udinese a 40% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Cagliari and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Udinese?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cagliari and Udinese in?
Cagliari (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Udinese (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cagliari's attack at 0.85x the league average against Udinese's defence at 1.40x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Udinese's attack (0.86x) against Cagliari's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
36%
2.79
24%
4.21
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Cagliari xG
Total xG
3.11
1.61
Udinese xG
2.79
36%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
20%
4.99
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
7%
13.93
9%
11.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.2 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.8 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.1 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.61 for Udinese, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cagliari come into this having played 17 games, going 1W 7D 9L for 0.59 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-D-L. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Udinese sit at 1.00 PPG from 17 outings (3W 8D 6L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Udinese carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Cagliari — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Cagliari's home form reads 1W 3D 4L across 8 games on their own ground, a 0.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Udinese have taken 0.75 points per game from 8 outings (1W 3D 4L).
Attack vs Defence
Cagliari are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.29 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cagliari have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 17 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Blended
Udinese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Udinese in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 1W 7D 9L in their last 17 games (0.59 PPG), while Udinese have gone 3W 8D 6L in their last 17 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Udinese away?
Cagliari's home record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 0.75 PPG; Udinese away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Udinese won 0-4 on 18 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cagliari have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Udinese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Cagliari
3
Draws
5
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Udinese?
From 8 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 0, Udinese have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Cagliari 0-2 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Udinese?
Udinese have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 88% for Cagliari, 62% for Udinese — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cagliari) and 50% (Udinese).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Udinese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 88% of Cagliari's games and 62% of Udinese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cagliari vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cagliari's recent games and 50% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cagliari and Udinese tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Udinese in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Udinese run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Cagliari.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese beat Cagliari 0-4 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.50 xG and Udinese 1.61 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Cagliari fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Udinese outscored their 1.61 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.85 / defence 1.28 against Udinese attack 0.86 / defence 1.40, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 36% | Draw 24% | Udinese 40%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 59%, Udinese 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Udinese's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Udinese arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.59. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cagliari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Udinese (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.