🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Bologna edge out Sassuolo 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bologna beat Sassuolo 0-1 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 1.21 xG and Bologna 1.80 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sassuolo fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Bologna landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 0.92 / defence 1.27 against Bologna attack 1.21 / defence 1.03, drawn from 28/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 26% | Draw 23% | Bologna 51%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 53%, Bologna 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sassuolo's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Bologna's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sassuolo 1.82 PPG, Bologna 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bologna win broke the near-deadlock. Sassuolo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward. Bologna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights