Sassuolo 0-1 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sassuolo face Bologna.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bologna make the trip to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore to face Sassuolo in Serie A (matchday 29). The match kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
Form
Sassuolo (all games): 5W 0D 5L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Sassuolo have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Bologna's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bologna's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Sassuolo, 3 for Bologna and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.1 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 28 Dec 2025, ended Sassuolo 1–1 Bologna — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.1 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Sassuolo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Bologna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sassuolo 53% versus Bologna 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sassuolo 53% | Bologna 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 1.21 xG and Bologna 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 0.921 / defence 1.271 | Bologna attack 1.207 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.279 / away 1.177. Bologna have an above-average attack rating of 1.207, which lifts their away xG to 1.80. Sassuolo's defence rating of 1.271 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bologna's projected output up. Data: built from Sassuolo's last 28 games and Bologna's last 66.
Result probabilities: Sassuolo 26% | Draw 23% | Bologna 51%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 3.91 | Draw 4.33 | Bologna 1.95. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bologna if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Sassuolo's last 10 home games and Bologna's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sassuolo 50% (last 10 home games) | Bologna 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sassuolo vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, matchday 29 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Sunday 15 March 2026 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sassuolo 26% | Draw 23% | Bologna 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Sassuolo 1.21 / Bologna 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Sassuolo attack 0.921 / def 1.271 | Bologna attack 1.207 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.279 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Bologna (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Sassuolo xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Bologna xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sassuolo vs Bologna FAQs
What time does Sassuolo vs Bologna kick off?
Sassuolo vs Bologna kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 15 March 2026 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Sassuolo vs Bologna?
Sassuolo 0 - 1 Bologna.
Where is Sassuolo vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Sassuolo vs Bologna part of?
Sassuolo vs Bologna is a Serie A fixture (matchday 29) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sassuolo vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Sassuolo a 26% chance of winning, Bologna a 51% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Sassuolo and Bologna will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sassuolo vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sassuolo's attack at 0.92x the league average against Bologna's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bologna's attack (1.21x) against Sassuolo's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.80.
These ratings are built from Sassuolo's last 28 games and Bologna's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
26%
3.91
23%
4.33
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Sassuolo xG
Total xG
3.02
1.80
Bologna xG
3.91
26%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
16%
6.08
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
4%
23.76
15%
6.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.8 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.7 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.5 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sassuolo vs Bologna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sassuolo vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Sassuolo and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Sassuolo and 1.80 for Bologna, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Sassuolo vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sassuolo come into this having played 66 games, going 36W 12D 18L for 1.82 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Bologna sit at 1.53 PPG from 66 outings (27W 20D 19L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.82 PPG for Sassuolo against 1.53 for Bologna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sassuolo's home form reads 20W 4D 9L across their last 33 home games, a 1.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Bologna have taken 1.42 points per game from their last 33 away games (12W 11D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sassuolo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sassuolo are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.42 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sassuolo
Current Season
Bologna
Current Season
Sassuolo (Home) vs Bologna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sassuolo
Current Season
Bologna
Current Season
❓ Sassuolo vs Bologna Form FAQs
What form are Sassuolo and Bologna in coming into this match?
Sassuolo have gone 36W 12D 18L in their last 66 games (1.82 PPG), while Bologna have gone 27W 20D 19L in their last 66 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sassuolo at home or Bologna away?
Sassuolo's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sassuolo at home: 1.94 PPG; Bologna away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Sassuolo or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sassuolo have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Bologna in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Sassuolo and Bologna, the earliest from December 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 6 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bologna won Sassuolo 0-3 Bologna on 22 Dec 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sassuolo have gone 0W 2D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bologna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Sassuolo
4
Draws
4
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Sassuolo vs Bologna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Bologna?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Sassuolo have won 1, Bologna have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sassuolo and Bologna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 September 2026: Bologna 2-2 Sassuolo.
Who has won more matches between Sassuolo and Bologna?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sassuolo 46%, Bologna 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Sassuolo) and 58% (Bologna).
On the defensive side: Sassuolo keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sassuolo home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sassuolo vs Bologna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sassuolo and Bologna matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Sassuolo's recent matches and 58% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sassuolo and Bologna matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Sassuolo's recent games and 58% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sassuolo and Bologna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Sassuolo's recent matches and 64% of Bologna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bologna edge out Sassuolo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Sassuolo 0-1 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 1.21 xG and Bologna 1.80 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sassuolo fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Bologna landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 0.92 / defence 1.27 against Bologna attack 1.21 / defence 1.03, drawn from 28/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 26% | Draw 23% | Bologna 51%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 53%, Bologna 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sassuolo's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Bologna's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sassuolo 1.82 PPG, Bologna 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bologna win broke the near-deadlock. Sassuolo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward. Bologna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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