Monza 1-3 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Empoli at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Monza face Empoli.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Monza and Empoli meet at U-Power Stadium in Serie A (matchday 37). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 18 May 2025 at 20:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Monza have collected 0.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
Monza at home: 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Empoli's record over their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Empoli away from home: 0W 3D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.40 for Monza, 0.70 for Empoli — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.8 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 17 Aug 2024, ended Monza 0–0 Empoli — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Monza — key trading statistics (last 74 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Empoli — key trading statistics (last 74 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monza 49% versus Empoli 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monza 45% | Empoli 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monza 1.11 xG and Empoli 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monza attack 0.689 / defence 1.308 | Empoli attack 0.872 / defence 1.337. League average goals — home 1.207 / away 1.147. Monza's attack rating of 0.689 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.11. Empoli's defence rating of 1.337 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Monza's projected output up. Monza's defence rating of 1.308 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Empoli's projected output up. Data: built from Monza's last 74 games and Empoli's last 74.
Result probabilities: Monza 31% | Draw 29% | Empoli 40%. Fair-value odds: Monza 3.24 | Draw 3.47 | Empoli 2.48. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Empoli at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Empoli if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Monza 50% (last 10 home games) | Empoli 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monza vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, matchday 37 | Venue: U-Power Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 18 May 2025 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monza 31% | Draw 29% | Empoli 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Monza 1.11 / Empoli 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Monza attack 0.689 / def 1.308 | Empoli attack 0.872 / def 1.337 | league avg home 1.207 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Empoli (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Monza xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Empoli xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Monza vs Empoli FAQs
What time does Monza vs Empoli kick off?
Monza vs Empoli kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Sunday 18 May 2025 at U-Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Monza vs Empoli?
Monza 1 - 3 Empoli.
Where is Monza vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at U-Power Stadium.
What competition is Monza vs Empoli part of?
Monza vs Empoli is a Serie A fixture (matchday 37) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Monza vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Monza a 31% chance of winning, Empoli a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monza vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Monza and Empoli will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Monza vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Monza's attack at 0.69x the league average against Empoli's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Empoli's attack (0.87x) against Monza's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from Monza's last 74 games and Empoli's last 74 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
31%
3.24
29%
3.47
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Monza xG
Total xG
2.42
1.31
Empoli xG
3.24
31%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
8%
11.99
13%
7.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 11.6 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Monza vs Empoli Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Monza vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Monza and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Monza and 1.31 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Monza vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Monza come into this having played 74 games, going 14W 21D 39L for 0.85 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W.
On the other side, Empoli sit at 0.86 PPG from 74 outings (14W 22D 38L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.85 PPG for Monza against 0.86 for Empoli. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Monza's home form reads 7W 11D 19L across their last 37 home games, a 0.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Empoli have taken 0.84 points per game from their last 37 away games (7W 10D 20L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Monza are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 0.78 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 74 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monza
Current Season
Empoli
Current Season
Monza (Home) vs Empoli (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Monza
Current Season
Empoli
Current Season
❓ Monza vs Empoli Form FAQs
What form are Monza and Empoli in coming into this match?
Monza have gone 14W 21D 39L in their last 74 games (0.85 PPG), while Empoli have gone 14W 22D 38L in their last 74 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monza at home or Empoli away?
Monza's home record (0.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monza at home: 0.86 PPG; Empoli away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — enough to show some patterns. They cover more than one competition — Serie A, Serie B. The most recent was on 8 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Empoli won Empoli 3-0 Monza on 21 Jan 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Monza have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Empoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Monza
3
Draws
3
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Monza vs Empoli H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Empoli?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Monza have won 2, Empoli have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Monza and Empoli last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 May 2026: Monza 2-2 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Monza and Empoli?
Empoli have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monza 54%, Empoli 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Monza) and 43% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Monza have failed to score in 32% of games; Empoli in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monza home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Monza vs Empoli Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Monza and Empoli matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Monza's recent matches and 54% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Monza and Empoli matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Monza's recent games and 43% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monza and Empoli matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Monza's recent matches and 76% of Empoli's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Empoli cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Monza.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Empoli beat Monza 1-3 at U-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.11 xG and Empoli 1.31 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Empoli outscored their 1.31 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 0.69 / defence 1.31 against Empoli attack 0.87 / defence 1.34, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monza 31% | Draw 29% | Empoli 40%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 45%, Empoli 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monza's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Empoli's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Monza 0.85 PPG, Empoli 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Empoli win broke the near-deadlock. Monza (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Empoli (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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