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Poisson model favours Juventus (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Juventus face Udinese.

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Analysis

Udinese make the trip to Allianz Stadium to face Juventus in Serie A, Regular Season - 37. The match kicks off on Sunday 18 May 2025 at 19:45 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Juventus have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

In front of their own supporters this season, Juventus have posted 7W 2D 1L at Allianz Stadium — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Juventus are significantly better at Allianz Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Udinese's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

On the road, Udinese have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form ledger tips toward Juventus. A 0.70 PPG lead over Udinese (1.50 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H Analysis

Historically, Juventus have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 7 meetings, with Udinese managing just 1 victories and 1 draws shared.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2024, ended 2–0 with Juventus winning.

The historical record gives Juventus a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading Data

Juventus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.

Udinese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventus 47% versus Udinese 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventus 40% | Udinese 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Juventus 1.54 xG and Udinese 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventus attack 1.174 / defence 0.860 | Udinese attack 0.878 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.207 / away 1.147. Data: 74 Juventus games / 74 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Juventus 52% | Draw 27% | Udinese 21%. Fair-value odds: Juventus 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Udinese 4.76. Juventus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Juventus as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juventus if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Juventus 40% | Udinese 60%.

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