Empoli 2-1 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Parma at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Empoli vs Parma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Parma make the trip to Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena to face Empoli in Serie A, Regular Season - 36. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 May 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Empoli's overall Serie A record this term: 0W 4D 6L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Empoli at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 home games — 0.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Parma (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Parma away from home this season: 0W 5D 5L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Parma arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Empoli, 0 for Parma and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Empoli — key trading statistics (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
Parma — key trading statistics (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 41% versus Parma 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 37% | Parma 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 0.89 xG and Parma 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.662 / defence 1.194 | Parma attack 0.743 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.179 / away 1.118. Empoli's attack strength of 0.662 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 73 Empoli games / 35 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 30% | Draw 33% | Parma 36%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 3.33 | Draw 3.03 | Parma 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Parma are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Parma if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.88 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Empoli 40% | Parma 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Parma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 30% | Draw 33% | Parma 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 38% | xG Empoli 0.89 / Parma 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.662 / def 1.194 | Parma attack 0.743 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.179 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Parma (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Parma xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Parma kick off?
Empoli vs Parma kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 10 May 2025 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Parma?
Empoli 2 - 1 Parma.
Where is Empoli vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What competition is Empoli vs Parma part of?
Empoli vs Parma is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 30% chance of winning, Parma a 36% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Empoli and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Parma?
Record (1 meetings): Empoli 0W | Draws 1 | Parma 0W.
What form are Empoli and Parma in?
Empoli (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Parma (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Empoli's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against Parma's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.89. Flip it around — Parma's attack (0.74x) against Empoli's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 73/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
30%
3.28
33%
2.99
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Empoli xG
Total xG
1.88
0.99
Parma xG
3.28
30%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
11%
8.86
15%
6.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.2 | 15.1 | 7.5 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.4 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Empoli and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Empoli and 0.99 for Parma, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Empoli come into this having played 73 games, going 13W 22D 38L for 0.84 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Parma sit at 1.48 PPG from 73 outings (27W 27D 19L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-L across their last five.
Parma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.64 PPG clear of Empoli — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Empoli's home form reads 6W 12D 18L across 36 games on their own ground, a 0.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Parma have taken 1.33 points per game from 36 outings (11W 15D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Parma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Empoli are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.45 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Parma in 63%.
Last 73 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Current Season
Parma
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Parma in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 13W 22D 38L in their last 73 games (0.84 PPG), while Parma have gone 27W 27D 19L in their last 73 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Parma away?
Parma's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 0.83 PPG; Parma away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Empoli
1
Draws
0
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Parma?
From 2 meetings on record, Empoli have won 1, Parma have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Empoli 2-1 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and Parma?
Empoli have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Empoli see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 28%, Parma 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Empoli) and 56% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Empoli keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Parma in 31%; Empoli have failed to score in 61% of games; Parma in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Parma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 28% of Empoli's recent matches and 58% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Empoli vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Empoli's recent games and 56% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Empoli and Parma tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Parma in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Empoli defy the odds to beat Parma 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Empoli beat Parma 2-1 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 0.89 xG and Parma 0.99 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Empoli beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.66 / defence 1.19 against Parma attack 0.74 / defence 1.14, drawn from 73/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 30% | Draw 33% | Parma 36%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Empoli win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 37%, Parma 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Parma's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.84. Form was overturned, with Empoli winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Empoli (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.61 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.