Udinese 1-2 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Udinese (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Udinese face Monza.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Udinese host Monza at Bluenergy Stadium in Serie A, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 May 2025 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Udinese — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Udinese at Bluenergy Stadium this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Serie A games this season, Monza have recorded 0W 1D 9L from 10 outings — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Monza have gone 0W 0D 10L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game.
On current form, Udinese have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Udinese have won 2, Monza 0, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2024, ended 2–1 with Udinese winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Udinese in-play and half-time data (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Monza in-play and half-time data (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 55% versus Monza 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 42% | Monza 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.53 xG and Monza 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.839 / defence 1.114 | Monza attack 0.721 / defence 1.538. League average goals — home 1.187 / away 1.118. Monza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.538 — this is suppressing Udinese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 73 Udinese games / 73 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 51% | Draw 27% | Monza 21%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Monza 4.76. Udinese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Udinese are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Udinese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 40% | Monza 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Monza | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 11 May 2025, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 51% | Draw 27% | Monza 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG Udinese 1.53 / Monza 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.839 / def 1.114 | Monza attack 0.721 / def 1.538 | league avg home 1.187 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Udinese (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Monza xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Monza kick off?
Udinese vs Monza kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 11 May 2025 at Bluenergy Stadium.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Monza?
Udinese 1 - 2 Monza.
Where is Udinese vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium.
What competition is Udinese vs Monza part of?
Udinese vs Monza is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 51% chance of winning, Monza a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Udinese and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Monza?
Record (5 meetings): Udinese 2W | Draws 3 | Monza 0W.
What form are Udinese and Monza in?
Udinese (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Monza (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Udinese's attack rating (0.84) and Monza's defence rating (1.54), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Monza's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
51%
1.94
27%
3.69
21%
4.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.43
0.90
Monza xG
1.94
51%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
4.66
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
21%
4.78
5%
21.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.1 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Udinese and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Udinese and 0.90 for Monza, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Udinese come into this having played 73 games, going 18W 27D 28L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-W.
On the other side, Monza sit at 0.82 PPG from 73 outings (13W 21D 39L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Udinese on 1.11 PPG, Monza on 0.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Udinese's home form reads 8W 14D 14L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.06 PPG return.
Away from home, Monza have taken 0.78 points per game from 36 outings (6W 10D 20L).
The Goals Picture
Udinese are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 0.88 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 73 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Current Season
Monza
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Monza in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 18W 27D 28L in their last 73 games (1.11 PPG), while Monza have gone 13W 21D 39L in their last 73 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Monza away?
Udinese's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.06 PPG; Monza away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Udinese and Monza runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Udinese's record when hosting Monza specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Udinese
3
Draws
1
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Monza?
From 7 meetings on record, Udinese have won 3, Monza have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Monza 2-3 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Monza?
Udinese have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Monza see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 53%, Monza 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Udinese) and 44% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Udinese have failed to score in 31% of games; Monza in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Monza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Udinese's recent matches and 42% of Monza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Udinese vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Udinese's recent games and 44% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Monza tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Monza in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Monza defy the odds to beat Udinese 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monza beat Udinese 1-2 at Bluenergy Stadium, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.53 xG and Monza 0.90 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Monza outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.84 / defence 1.11 against Monza attack 0.72 / defence 1.54, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 51% | Draw 27% | Monza 21%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Monza win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 42%, Monza 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Monza's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Udinese 1.11 PPG, Monza 0.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Monza win broke the near-deadlock. Monza (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.