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Poisson model favours Udinese (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Udinese face Monza.

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Match Analysis

Udinese host Monza at Bluenergy Stadium in Serie A, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 May 2025 at 11:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Udinese — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Udinese at Bluenergy Stadium this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Across all Serie A games this season, Monza have recorded 0W 1D 9L from 10 outings — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

On the road, Monza have gone 0W 0D 10L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game.

On current form, Udinese have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Udinese have won 2, Monza 0, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2024, ended 2–1 with Udinese winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Udinese in-play and half-time data (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Monza in-play and half-time data (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 55% versus Monza 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 42% | Monza 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.53 xG and Monza 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.839 / defence 1.114 | Monza attack 0.721 / defence 1.538. League average goals — home 1.187 / away 1.118. Monza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.538 — this is suppressing Udinese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 73 Udinese games / 73 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Udinese 51% | Draw 27% | Monza 21%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Monza 4.76. Udinese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Udinese are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Udinese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 40% | Monza 50% BTTS from recent games.

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