Lecce 1-1 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Venezia at 34% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lecce face Venezia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Venezia make the trip to Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare to face Lecce in Serie A (matchday 31). The match kicks off on Sunday 6 April 2025 at 12:30 UK time.
Form
Lecce (all games): 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Lecce's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Venezia's record over their last 10 games: 0W 6D 4L (0.60 PPG). Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Venezia away from home: 0W 5D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.50 PPG for Lecce against 0.60 for Venezia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for Lecce, 0 for Venezia and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 25 Nov 2024, ended Lecce 1–0 Venezia — a Lecce win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Lecce — key trading statistics (last 68 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Venezia — key trading statistics (last 68 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lecce 41% versus Venezia 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lecce 40% | Venezia 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Lecce surrender their half-time lead 42% of the time, while Venezia have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 46% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lecce 1.02 xG and Venezia 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecce attack 0.684 / defence 1.220 | Venezia attack 0.719 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 1.173. Lecce's attack rating of 0.684 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.02. Venezia's attack rating of 0.719 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.03. Lecce's defence rating of 1.220 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Venezia's projected output up. Data: built from Lecce's last 68 games and Venezia's last 30.
Result probabilities: Lecce 33% | Draw 33% | Venezia 34%. Fair-value odds: Lecce 3.01 | Draw 3.03 | Venezia 2.96. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Venezia as the most likely outcome at 34% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Venezia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.05 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 66% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Lecce 50% (last 10 home games) | Venezia 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lecce vs Venezia | Competition: Serie A, matchday 31 | Venue: Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare • Kick-off: Sunday 6 April 2025 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lecce 33% | Draw 33% | Venezia 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Lecce 1.02 / Venezia 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Lecce attack 0.684 / def 1.220 | Venezia attack 0.719 / def 1.148 | league avg home 1.294 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Venezia (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Lecce xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Venezia xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lecce vs Venezia FAQs
What time does Lecce vs Venezia kick off?
Lecce vs Venezia kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 6 April 2025 at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare.
What was the final score in Lecce vs Venezia?
Lecce 1 - 1 Venezia.
Where is Lecce vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare.
What competition is Lecce vs Venezia part of?
Lecce vs Venezia is a Serie A fixture (matchday 31) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lecce vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Lecce a 33% chance of winning, Venezia a 34% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lecce vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Lecce and Venezia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Lecce vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lecce's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Venezia's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. Flip it around — Venezia's attack (0.72x) against Lecce's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from Lecce's last 68 games and Venezia's last 30 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
33%
3.01
33%
3.03
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Lecce xG
Total xG
2.05
1.03
Venezia xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
12%
8.44
12%
8.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 13.3 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lecce vs Venezia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lecce vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Lecce and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Lecce and 1.03 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Lecce vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 68 outings, Lecce have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 14W 21D 33L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Venezia's form line: 25W 17D 26L from 68 games, 1.35 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-L.
Put side by side, Venezia are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lecce.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Lecce have posted 1.12 PPG from their last 34 home games (9W 11D 14L).
On the road, Venezia have gone 8W 10D 16L from their last 34 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Lecce are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.32 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lecce
Current Season
Venezia
Current Season
Lecce (Home) vs Venezia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lecce
Current Season
Venezia
Current Season
❓ Lecce vs Venezia Form FAQs
What form are Lecce and Venezia in coming into this match?
Lecce have gone 14W 21D 33L in their last 68 games (0.93 PPG), while Venezia have gone 25W 17D 26L in their last 68 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lecce at home or Venezia away?
Lecce's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lecce at home: 1.12 PPG; Venezia away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 3 H2H matches between Lecce and Venezia, the earliest from November 2024. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 23 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Lecce
1
Draws
0
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Lecce vs Venezia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Venezia?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Lecce have won 2, Venezia have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Lecce and Venezia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 August 2026: Venezia 0-2 Lecce.
Who has won more matches between Lecce and Venezia?
Lecce have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lecce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Venezia see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lecce 41%, Venezia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Lecce) and 59% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Lecce have failed to score in 44% of games; Venezia in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lecce home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lecce vs Venezia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lecce and Venezia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Lecce's recent matches and 50% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lecce and Venezia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Lecce's recent games and 59% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lecce and Venezia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Lecce's recent matches and 53% of Venezia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lecce and Venezia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lecce and Venezia finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecce 1.02 xG and Venezia 1.03 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecce attack 0.68 / defence 1.22 against Venezia attack 0.72 / defence 1.15, drawn from 68/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lecce 33% | Draw 33% | Venezia 34%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecce 40%, Venezia 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lecce's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Venezia's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Venezia arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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