Bologna 1-1 Napoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Napoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Renato Dall'Ara plays host to Bologna versus Napoli in Serie A, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Monday 7 April 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Bologna (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Bologna's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Napoli's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L D W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Napoli have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Bologna's favour (2.30 vs 1.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Bologna have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Napoli in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Bologna, 3 for Napoli and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2024, ended 0–3 with Napoli winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Bologna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Napoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 50% versus Napoli 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 48% | Napoli 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.62 xG and Napoli 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.484 / defence 0.896 | Napoli attack 1.194 / defence 0.860. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.164. Bologna carry an above-average attack strength of 1.484 — their λ of 1.62 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 68 Bologna games / 68 Napoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 45% | Draw 27% | Napoli 28%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Napoli 3.57. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Napoli lead the H2H ledger, but Bologna carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bologna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 60% | Napoli 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Napoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Monday 7 Apr 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 45% | Draw 27% | Napoli 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Bologna 1.62 / Napoli 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 1.484 / def 0.896 | Napoli attack 1.194 / def 0.860 | league avg home 1.271 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Bologna (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Napoli xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Napoli kick off?
Bologna vs Napoli kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 7 April 2025 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Napoli?
Bologna 1 - 1 Napoli.
Where is Bologna vs Napoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Napoli part of?
Bologna vs Napoli is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Napoli?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 45% chance of winning, Napoli a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Napoli?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Bologna and Napoli will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Napoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Napoli?
Record (6 meetings): Bologna 1W | Draws 2 | Napoli 3W.
What form are Bologna and Napoli in?
Bologna (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Napoli (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bologna's attack at 1.48x the league average against Napoli's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Napoli's attack (1.19x) against Bologna's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
45%
2.23
27%
3.66
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.87
1.25
Napoli xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
20%
5.06
Win to Nil
13%
7.76
6%
18.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.5 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Napoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Bologna and Napoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Bologna and 1.25 for Napoli, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Napoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bologna come into this having played 68 games, going 33W 25D 10L for 1.82 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Napoli sit at 1.72 PPG from 68 outings (32W 21D 15L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.82 PPG for Bologna against 1.72 for Napoli. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Bologna's home form reads 21W 10D 3L across 34 games on their own ground, a 2.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Napoli have taken 1.68 points per game from 34 outings (15W 12D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bologna are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Napoli are on 1.50 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Current Season
Napoli
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Napoli in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 33W 25D 10L in their last 68 games (1.82 PPG), while Napoli have gone 32W 21D 15L in their last 68 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Napoli away?
Bologna's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 2.15 PPG; Napoli away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Bologna or Napoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Napoli in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Napoli won 3-0 on 25 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bologna have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Napoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bologna
3
Draws
4
Napoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Napoli?
From 10 meetings on record, Bologna have won 3, Napoli have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Napoli last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when Napoli 1-0 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Napoli?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 44%, Napoli 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Bologna) and 50% (Napoli).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Napoli in 32%; Napoli in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Napoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Napoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Bologna's recent matches and 50% of Napoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Napoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Bologna's recent games and 50% of Napoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Napoli tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Napoli in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bologna and Napoli share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 31, as Bologna and Napoli drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.62 xG and Napoli 1.25 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.48 / defence 0.90 against Napoli attack 1.19 / defence 0.86, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 45% | Draw 27% | Napoli 28%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 48%, Napoli 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Napoli's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bologna 1.82 PPG, Napoli 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.