Empoli 0-0 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cagliari at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Empoli vs Cagliari encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Cagliari travel to Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena to take on Empoli. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 April 2025, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Empoli — All Games: 0W 3D 7L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
Empoli's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 games at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cagliari stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Cagliari's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Cagliari — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Empoli have won 2, Cagliari 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.4 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2024, ended 2–0 with Empoli winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Empoli in-play tendencies (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Cagliari in-play tendencies (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 41% versus Cagliari 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 35% | Cagliari 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 0.80 xG and Cagliari 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.623 / defence 1.270 | Cagliari attack 0.806 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 1.173. Empoli's attack strength of 0.623 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 68 Empoli games / 68 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 23% | Draw 33% | Cagliari 44%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 4.35 | Draw 3.03 | Cagliari 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cagliari at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cagliari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Empoli 40% | Cagliari 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Apr 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 23% | Draw 33% | Cagliari 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Empoli 0.80 / Cagliari 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.623 / def 1.270 | Cagliari attack 0.806 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.294 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Cagliari (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Cagliari xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Cagliari kick off?
Empoli vs Cagliari kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 6 April 2025 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Cagliari?
Empoli 0 - 0 Cagliari.
Where is Empoli vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What competition is Empoli vs Cagliari part of?
Empoli vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 23% chance of winning, Cagliari a 44% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Cagliari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Empoli and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Cagliari?
Record (5 meetings): Empoli 2W | Draws 2 | Cagliari 1W.
What form are Empoli and Cagliari in?
Empoli (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Cagliari (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Empoli's attack rating (0.62) and Cagliari's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 0.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cagliari's attack versus Empoli's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.7%), 0-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cagliari Win
23%
4.34
33%
3.04
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.00
1.20
Cagliari xG
4.34
23%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
45%
2.22
Win to Nil
7%
14.42
20%
5.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 16.3 | 9.8 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.0 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Empoli and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Empoli and 1.20 for Cagliari, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Cagliari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Empoli come into this having played 68 games, going 13W 20D 35L for 0.87 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D.
On the other side, Cagliari sit at 0.96 PPG from 68 outings (15W 20D 33L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Empoli on 0.87 PPG, Cagliari on 0.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Empoli's home form reads 6W 10D 17L across 33 games on their own ground, a 0.85 PPG return.
Away from home, Cagliari have taken 0.64 points per game from 33 outings (4W 9D 20L).
Goals in Recent Form
Empoli are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.07 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Current Season
Cagliari
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 13W 20D 35L in their last 68 games (0.87 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 15W 20D 33L in their last 68 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Cagliari away?
Empoli's home record (0.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 0.85 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Empoli's record when hosting Cagliari specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Empoli
3
Draws
1
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Cagliari?
From 6 meetings on record, Empoli have won 2, Cagliari have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2025, when Empoli 0-0 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and Cagliari?
Empoli have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Empoli see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 27%, Cagliari 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Empoli) and 48% (Cagliari).
On the defensive side: Empoli keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Empoli have failed to score in 61% of games; Cagliari in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Cagliari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Empoli's recent matches and 52% of Cagliari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Empoli vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Empoli's recent games and 48% of Cagliari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Empoli and Cagliari tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Empoli's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, Regular Season - 31, as Empoli and Cagliari drew 0-0 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 0.80 xG and Cagliari 1.20 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cagliari landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.62 / defence 1.27 against Cagliari attack 0.81 / defence 0.99, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 23% | Draw 33% | Cagliari 44%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 35%, Cagliari 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cagliari's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Empoli 0.87 PPG, Cagliari 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Empoli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Cagliari (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.