🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Genoa at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genoa vs Udinese encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Udinese travel to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris to take on Genoa. The game is scheduled for Friday 4 April 2025, 19:45 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Serie A games this season, Genoa have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Genoa's home record at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Udinese — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Udinese away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Genoa 1.20 PPG, Udinese 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Genoa have won 2, Udinese 0, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.6 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2024, ended 2–0 with Genoa winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Genoa trading profile (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).

Udinese trading profile (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 53% versus Udinese 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 40% | Udinese 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.28 xG and Udinese 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.960 / defence 0.931 | Udinese attack 0.922 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.159. Data: 68 Genoa games / 68 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Genoa 42% | Draw 31% | Udinese 27%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Udinese 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Genoa are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Genoa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Genoa 50% | Udinese 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights