Lecce 1-1 Juventus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Juventus (66%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Lecce face Juventus.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lecce host Juventus at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare in Serie A (matchday 14). Kick-off is Sunday 1 December 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Lecce — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Lecce's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Juventus have recorded 4W 6D 0L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Juventus have gone 3W 7D 0L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Form points away from home here. Juventus's 1.80 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Lecce's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
Despite the home advantage, Juventus have the better record in our head-to-head data — 4 wins from 4 H2H matches against 0 for Lecce.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Jan 2024, ended Lecce 0–3 Juventus — a Juventus win.
Juventus have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 4 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Profile
Lecce in-play tendencies (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Juventus in-play tendencies (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lecce 37% versus Juventus 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lecce 35% | Juventus 39%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Lecce surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Juventus have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 67% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lecce 0.83 xG and Juventus 2.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecce attack 0.784 / defence 1.293 | Juventus attack 1.236 / defence 0.779. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 1.286. Lecce's attack rating of 0.784 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.83. Juventus bring a tight defence (rating 0.779, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Lecce's projected output down. Juventus have an above-average attack rating of 1.236, which lifts their away xG to 2.06. Lecce's defence rating of 1.293 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Juventus's projected output up. Data: built from Lecce's last 51 games and Juventus's last 51.
Result probabilities: Lecce 14% | Draw 20% | Juventus 66%. Fair-value odds: Lecce 7.10 | Draw 4.94 | Juventus 1.52. The model has a clear lean to Juventus (66%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Juventus are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lecce 30% (last 10 home games) | Juventus 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lecce vs Juventus | Competition: Serie A, matchday 14 | Venue: Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare • Kick-off: Sunday 1 December 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lecce 14% | Draw 20% | Juventus 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Lecce 0.83 / Juventus 2.06 • Poisson strength factors: Lecce attack 0.784 / def 1.293 | Juventus attack 1.236 / def 0.779 | league avg home 1.361 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Juventus (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Lecce xG
Expected Goals
2.06
Juventus xG
49%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lecce vs Juventus FAQs
What time does Lecce vs Juventus kick off?
Lecce vs Juventus kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Sunday 1 December 2024 at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare.
What was the final score in Lecce vs Juventus?
Lecce 1 - 1 Juventus.
Where is Lecce vs Juventus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare.
What competition is Lecce vs Juventus part of?
Lecce vs Juventus is a Serie A fixture (matchday 14) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lecce vs Juventus?
Our statistical model gives Lecce a 14% chance of winning, Juventus a 66% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Juventus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lecce vs Juventus?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Lecce and Juventus will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Lecce vs Juventus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Lecce's attack at 0.78x the league average against Juventus's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 0.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Juventus's attack versus Lecce's defence, projects 2.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lecce's last 51 games and Juventus's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.8%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
14%
7.10
20%
4.94
66%
1.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Lecce xG
Total xG
2.89
2.06
Juventus xG
7.10
14%
Home win
4.94
20%
Draw
1.52
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
13%
7.81
44%
2.30
Win to Nil
2%
55.41
29%
3.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 11.5 | 11.8 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lecce vs Juventus Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lecce vs Juventus?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Lecce and Juventus expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Lecce and 2.06 for Juventus, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Lecce vs Juventus?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lecce's recent record stands at 11W 17D 23L from 51 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five.
Juventus, meanwhile, have gone 25W 21D 5L across 51 games — 1.88 PPG, with D-D-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Juventus by 0.90 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lecce heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lecce have managed 8W 8D 9L from their last 25 home games — 1.28 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Juventus's away record stands at 11W 10D 4L across their last 25 away games, a 1.72 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lecce are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Juventus are on 1.47 scored and 0.75 conceded.
Defensively: Juventus in 53% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lecce
Blended
Juventus
Blended
Lecce (Home) vs Juventus (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lecce
Blended
Juventus
Blended
❓ Lecce vs Juventus Form FAQs
What form are Lecce and Juventus in coming into this match?
Lecce have gone 11W 17D 23L in their last 51 games (0.98 PPG), while Juventus have gone 25W 21D 5L in their last 51 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lecce at home or Juventus away?
Juventus's away record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lecce at home: 1.28 PPG; Juventus away: 1.72 PPG.
Have Lecce or Juventus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lecce have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Juventus in 53%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 25 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Juventus have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Jan 2024, when Juventus won Lecce 0-3 Juventus.
Lecce's record when hosting Juventus specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Lecce
2
Draws
7
Juventus
Recent Meetings
❓ Lecce vs Juventus H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Juventus?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Lecce have won 0, Juventus have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lecce and Juventus last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2026: Lecce 0-2 Juventus.
Who has won more matches between Lecce and Juventus?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lecce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lecce 40%, Juventus 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Lecce) and 52% (Juventus).
On the defensive side: Juventus in 48%; Lecce have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lecce home games / Juventus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lecce vs Juventus Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lecce and Juventus matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Lecce's recent matches and 44% of Juventus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lecce and Juventus matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Lecce's recent games and 52% of Juventus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lecce and Juventus matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Lecce's recent matches and 68% of Juventus's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lecce and Juventus share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare, Regular Season - 14, as Lecce and Juventus drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecce 0.83 xG and Juventus 2.06 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Juventus landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecce attack 0.78 / defence 1.29 against Juventus attack 1.24 / defence 0.78, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lecce 14% | Draw 20% | Juventus 66%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecce 35%, Juventus 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lecce's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.
Juventus's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Juventus arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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