Torino 0-1 Napoli – Result & Analysis

🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Napoli (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Torino face Napoli.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 14 as Torino welcome Napoli to Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 December 2024 at 14:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Serie A games this season, Torino have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Torino, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Torino at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Torino are significantly better at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Napoli stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Napoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Napoli away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Form points away from home here. Napoli's 2.30 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Torino's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H Record

Napoli have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 6 encounters against Torino's 1 victories.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.

It is worth noting that Napoli have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading Patterns

Torino in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 32% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 41% of games.

Napoli in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Torino 37% versus Napoli 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Torino 35% | Napoli 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Torino 0.84 xG and Napoli 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Torino attack 0.873 / defence 0.852 | Napoli attack 1.071 / defence 0.709. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 1.298. Napoli's defence strength of 0.709 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 51 Torino games / 51 Napoli games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Torino 26% | Draw 31% | Napoli 44%. Fair-value odds: Torino 3.85 | Draw 3.23 | Napoli 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Napoli at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Napoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Torino 40% | Napoli 40% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights