Bologna 3-0 Venezia – Result & Analysis

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Poisson rates Bologna at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bologna vs Venezia encounter.

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Match Analysis

Bologna host Venezia at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Serie A, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 November 2024 at 19:45 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Serie A games this season, Bologna have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna have gone 2W 7D 1L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Venezia stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Venezia's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Bologna carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Bologna have won 0, Venezia 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2022, ended 3–4 with Venezia winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Bologna in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

Venezia in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 48% versus Venezia 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 44% | Venezia 66%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.44 xG and Venezia 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.874 / defence 0.770 | Venezia attack 0.720 / defence 1.220. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 1.295. Venezia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.220 — this is suppressing Bologna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Bologna's defence rating of 0.770 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 Bologna games / 13 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bologna 54% | Draw 28% | Venezia 18%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 1.85 | Draw 3.57 | Venezia 5.56. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates are neutral: Bologna 50% | Venezia 50%.

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