Udinese 0-2 Genoa – Result & Analysis

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Poisson model rates Udinese at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Udinese vs Genoa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Genoa travel to Bluenergy Stadium to take on Udinese. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 December 2024, 11:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Serie A games this season, Udinese have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Bluenergy Stadium, Udinese have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Genoa stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Genoa away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Udinese 1.00 PPG, Genoa 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Udinese, 1 for Genoa and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2024, ended 0–2 with Genoa winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Udinese in-play tendencies (51 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).

Genoa in-play tendencies (51 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 57% versus Genoa 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 39% | Genoa 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.54 xG and Genoa 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.979 / defence 0.905 | Genoa attack 0.755 / defence 1.152. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.287. Data: 51 Udinese games / 51 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Udinese 52% | Draw 26% | Genoa 21%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Genoa 4.76. Udinese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Udinese as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Udinese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Udinese 60% | Genoa 40%.

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