Atalanta 1-1 Salernitana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atalanta at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atalanta vs Salernitana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 35 sees Salernitana travel to Gewiss Stadium to take on Atalanta. The game is scheduled for Monday 2 May 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atalanta stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Atalanta have posted 2W 4D 4L at Gewiss Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Salernitana have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Salernitana have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Atalanta at 1.10 PPG versus Salernitana's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Atalanta have won 1, Salernitana 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 1–0 with Atalanta winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Atalanta trading profile (33 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Salernitana trading profile (33 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atalanta 64% versus Salernitana 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 64% | Salernitana 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 1.95 xG and Salernitana 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 1.200 / defence 1.443 | Salernitana attack 0.719 / defence 1.488. League average goals — home 1.095 / away 1.313. Salernitana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.488 — this is suppressing Atalanta's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Atalanta games / 33 Salernitana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atalanta 51% | Draw 23% | Salernitana 26%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 1.96 | Draw 4.35 | Salernitana 3.85. Atalanta hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.95 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Atalanta as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atalanta offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.32 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Atalanta 60% | Salernitana 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs Salernitana | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Gewiss Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 2 May 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 51% | Draw 23% | Salernitana 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 64% | xG Atalanta 1.95 / Salernitana 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 1.200 / def 1.443 | Salernitana attack 0.719 / def 1.488 | league avg home 1.095 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Salernitana xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atalanta vs Salernitana kick off?
Atalanta vs Salernitana kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 2 May 2022 at Gewiss Stadium.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs Salernitana?
Atalanta 1 - 1 Salernitana.
Where is Atalanta vs Salernitana being played?
The match is being played at Gewiss Stadium.
What competition is Atalanta vs Salernitana part of?
Atalanta vs Salernitana is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs Salernitana?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 51% chance of winning, Salernitana a 26% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Salernitana?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Atalanta and Salernitana will score (BTTS).
Will Atalanta vs Salernitana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Salernitana?
Record (1 meetings): Atalanta 1W | Draws 0 | Salernitana 0W.
What form are Atalanta and Salernitana in?
Atalanta (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Salernitana (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Atalanta's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Salernitana's defensive record (1.49x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.95. The same calculation in reverse, Salernitana's attack versus Atalanta's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
51%
1.97
23%
4.32
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Atalanta xG
Total xG
3.32
1.36
Salernitana xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
14%
7.06
Win to Nil
13%
7.70
4%
26.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 9.7 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Salernitana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Atalanta and Salernitana expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Atalanta and 1.36 for Salernitana, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs Salernitana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Atalanta's recent record stands at 14W 10D 9L from 33 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-D in the last five.
Salernitana, meanwhile, have gone 6W 7D 20L across 33 games — 0.76 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Atalanta by 0.82 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Salernitana heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Atalanta have managed 4W 7D 6L from 17 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.58 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Salernitana's away record stands at 4W 2D 11L across 17 trips, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Atalanta are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Salernitana are on 0.85 scored and 2.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Atalanta have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 33 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Current Season
Salernitana
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atalanta and Salernitana in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 14W 10D 9L in their last 33 games (1.58 PPG), while Salernitana have gone 6W 7D 20L in their last 33 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or Salernitana away?
Atalanta's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 1.12 PPG; Salernitana away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Atalanta or Salernitana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Salernitana in 6%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Atalanta have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Jan 2023, when Atalanta won 8-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Atalanta's record when hosting Salernitana specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Atalanta
1
Draws
1
Salernitana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Salernitana?
From 6 meetings on record, Atalanta have won 4, Salernitana have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Atalanta and Salernitana last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2024, when Salernitana 1-2 Atalanta.
Who has won more matches between Atalanta and Salernitana?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atalanta 71%, Salernitana 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Atalanta and 65% for Salernitana. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Salernitana in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / Salernitana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atalanta play Salernitana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Atalanta's games and 53% of Salernitana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atalanta vs Salernitana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Atalanta's matches and 65% of Salernitana's.
Do Atalanta and Salernitana tend to score early?
Atalanta have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Salernitana in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atalanta and Salernitana share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta and Salernitana finished level at 1-1 at Gewiss Stadium, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 1.95 xG and Salernitana 1.36 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Atalanta fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.20 / defence 1.44 against Salernitana attack 0.72 / defence 1.49, drawn from 34/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 51% | Draw 23% | Salernitana 26%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 64%, Salernitana 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (33 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Salernitana's trading profile (33 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.76. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Salernitana (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.