Hellas Verona 1-2 Napoli – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Napoli (53%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Hellas Verona face Napoli.

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Analysis

Napoli make the trip to Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi to face Hellas Verona in Serie A (matchday 27). The match kicks off on Saturday 28 February 2026 at 17:00 UK time.

Form

Hellas Verona (all games): 0W 3D 7L across their last 10 — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Hellas Verona's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Napoli's record over their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Napoli's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Napoli are 1.30 PPG clear of Hellas Verona over their recent games (1.60 vs 0.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head sample leans to Napoli, who have 5 wins from 9 H2H matches compared to 1 for the hosts, with 3 draws.

The 9 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.1 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 7 Jan 2026, ended Hellas Verona 2–2 Napoli — a draw.

The H2H data backs the away side. Napoli have won 5 of 9 H2H matches, and at 3.1 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

Trading Data

Hellas Verona goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 64 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.

Napoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 64 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 45% versus Napoli 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 53% | Napoli 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Hellas Verona surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Napoli have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 60% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 0.97 xG and Napoli 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.796 / defence 1.281 | Napoli attack 1.075 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.197. Hellas Verona's attack rating of 0.796 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.97. Hellas Verona's defence rating of 1.281 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Napoli's projected output up. Data: built from Hellas Verona's last 64 games and Napoli's last 64.

Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 22% | Draw 25% | Napoli 53%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 4.50 | Draw 4.08 | Napoli 1.88. Napoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Napoli at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Napoli if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 9 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Hellas Verona 60% (last 10 home games) | Napoli 30% (last 10 away games).

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