🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Lazio at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Torino vs Lazio encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Lazio make the trip to Stadio Olimpico di Torino to face Torino in Serie A, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Form

Torino (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Torino, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Torino at Stadio Olimpico di Torino this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Lazio have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lazio, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Serie A this season, Lazio have posted 2W 6D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Torino, 3 for Lazio and 5 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 3–3 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Torino goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Lazio goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Torino 45% versus Lazio 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Torino 41% | Lazio 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Torino 0.76 xG and Lazio 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Torino attack 0.862 / defence 1.244 | Lazio attack 0.740 / defence 0.710. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.190. Lazio's defence strength of 0.710 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 64 Torino games / 64 Lazio games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Torino 25% | Draw 32% | Lazio 43%. Fair-value odds: Torino 4.00 | Draw 3.12 | Lazio 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Torino's lower xG of 0.76 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Lazio are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lazio if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 1.85 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: Torino 70% | Lazio 20% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights