Hellas Verona 0-2 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genoa at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hellas Verona vs Genoa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Hellas Verona welcome Genoa to Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi in Serie A (matchday 29). Kick-off is Sunday 15 March 2026 at 11:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Hellas Verona have gone 1W 2D 7L — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Hellas Verona have gone 1W 2D 7L in their last 10 home games (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Genoa — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Genoa away from home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Genoa's 1.50 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Hellas Verona's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Hellas Verona's last 10 home games and Genoa's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Hellas Verona have won 2, Genoa 3, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Nov 2025, ended Hellas Verona 1–2 Genoa — a Genoa win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Hellas Verona in-play and half-time data (last 66 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Genoa in-play and half-time data (last 66 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 47% versus Genoa 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 54% | Genoa 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Hellas Verona surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Genoa have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.11 xG and Genoa 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.788 / defence 1.310 | Genoa attack 0.899 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.173. Hellas Verona's attack rating of 0.788 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.11. Hellas Verona's defence rating of 1.310 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Genoa's projected output up. Data: built from Hellas Verona's last 66 games and Genoa's last 66.
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 30% | Draw 27% | Genoa 43%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 3.32 | Draw 3.74 | Genoa 2.32. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Genoa at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Genoa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — low conviction — though recent form (Hellas Verona's last 10 home games and Genoa's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hellas Verona 70% (last 10 home games) | Genoa 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, matchday 29 | Venue: Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Sunday 15 March 2026 at 11:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 30% | Draw 27% | Genoa 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Hellas Verona 1.11 / Genoa 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 0.788 / def 1.310 | Genoa attack 0.899 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Genoa (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Genoa xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hellas Verona vs Genoa FAQs
What time does Hellas Verona vs Genoa kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Genoa kicked off at 11:30 UK time on Sunday 15 March 2026 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Genoa?
Hellas Verona 0 - 2 Genoa.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Genoa part of?
Hellas Verona vs Genoa is a Serie A fixture (matchday 29) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 30% chance of winning, Genoa a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Hellas Verona and Genoa will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Hellas Verona vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hellas Verona's attack at 0.79x the league average against Genoa's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Genoa's attack versus Hellas Verona's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hellas Verona's last 66 games and Genoa's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
30%
3.32
27%
3.74
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.49
1.38
Genoa xG
3.32
30%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
8%
13.21
14%
7.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.5 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.0 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hellas Verona vs Genoa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.38 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 66 outings, Hellas Verona have picked up 0.83 PPG on a 13W 16D 37L record — D-L-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Genoa's form line: 17W 22D 27L from 66 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hellas Verona on 0.83 PPG, Genoa on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Hellas Verona have posted 0.75 PPG from their last 32 home games (5W 9D 18L).
On the road, Genoa have gone 7W 11D 14L from their last 32 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Hellas Verona are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.08 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Current Season
Genoa
Current Season
Hellas Verona (Home) vs Genoa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hellas Verona
Current Season
Genoa
Current Season
❓ Hellas Verona vs Genoa Form FAQs
What form are Hellas Verona and Genoa in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 13W 16D 37L in their last 66 games (0.83 PPG), while Genoa have gone 17W 22D 27L in their last 66 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Genoa away?
Genoa's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 0.75 PPG; Genoa away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from September 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 15 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Genoa have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Hellas Verona's record when hosting Genoa specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Hellas Verona
2
Draws
4
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Hellas Verona vs Genoa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Genoa?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Hellas Verona have won 2, Genoa have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Genoa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 March 2026: Hellas Verona 0-2 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Genoa?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 47%, Genoa 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Hellas Verona) and 47% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Hellas Verona have failed to score in 47% of games; Genoa in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hellas Verona vs Genoa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hellas Verona and Genoa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Hellas Verona's recent matches and 56% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hellas Verona and Genoa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Hellas Verona's recent games and 47% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hellas Verona and Genoa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Hellas Verona's recent matches and 62% of Genoa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Genoa cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Hellas Verona.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa beat Hellas Verona 0-2 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.11 xG and Genoa 1.38 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Hellas Verona fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.79 / defence 1.31 against Genoa attack 0.90 / defence 1.09, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 30% | Draw 27% | Genoa 43%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 54%, Genoa 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Genoa's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hellas Verona 0.83 PPG, Genoa 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genoa win broke the near-deadlock. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward. Genoa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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