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Poisson rates Genoa at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genoa vs Udinese encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Udinese travel to Stadio Luigi Ferraris to take on Genoa. The game is scheduled for Friday 20 March 2026, 19:45 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Serie A games this season, Genoa have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Genoa's home record at Stadio Luigi Ferraris: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Udinese — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Udinese away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Genoa are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Genoa register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Udinese in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

Genoa hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 7 previous encounters compared to 0 for Udinese, with 3 draws in between.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 7 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2025, ended 2–1 with Genoa winning.

The historical record gives Genoa a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

In-Play Data

Genoa trading profile (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Udinese trading profile (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 52% versus Udinese 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 48% | Udinese 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.79 xG and Udinese 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 1.167 / defence 1.066 | Udinese attack 1.002 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.178. Data: 67 Genoa games / 67 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Genoa 50% | Draw 23% | Udinese 27%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 2.00 | Draw 4.35 | Udinese 3.70. Genoa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Genoa are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Genoa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 70% | Udinese 60% BTTS from recent games.

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