Empoli 0-2 Atalanta – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Atalanta at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Empoli vs Atalanta encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Atalanta make the trip to Stadio Carlo Castellani to face Empoli in Serie A, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Sunday 30 October 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Empoli (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Empoli's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Carlo Castellani this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Atalanta have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Atalanta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atalanta away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Atalanta are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Empoli lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2022, ended 1–0 with Empoli winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Empoli — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Atalanta — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Empoli 63% and Atalanta 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 51% | Atalanta 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 0.84 xG and Atalanta 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.822 / defence 1.114 | Atalanta attack 1.170 / defence 0.735. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.152. Atalanta's defence strength of 0.735 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 49 Empoli games / 49 Atalanta games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 20% | Draw 28% | Atalanta 52%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 5.00 | Draw 3.57 | Atalanta 1.92. Atalanta hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atalanta at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atalanta if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Empoli 70% | Atalanta 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Atalanta | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Oct 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 20% | Draw 28% | Atalanta 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 45% | xG Empoli 0.84 / Atalanta 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.822 / def 1.114 | Atalanta attack 1.170 / def 0.735 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Atalanta xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Atalanta kick off?
Empoli vs Atalanta kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 30 October 2022 at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Atalanta?
Empoli 0 - 2 Atalanta.
Where is Empoli vs Atalanta being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What competition is Empoli vs Atalanta part of?
Empoli vs Atalanta is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Atalanta?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 20% chance of winning, Atalanta a 52% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Atalanta?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Empoli and Atalanta will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Atalanta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Atalanta?
Record (2 meetings): Empoli 1W | Draws 0 | Atalanta 1W.
What form are Empoli and Atalanta in?
Empoli (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Atalanta (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Empoli's attack at 0.82x the league average against Atalanta's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 0.84 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Atalanta's attack (1.17x) against Empoli's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.9%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
20%
5.00
28%
3.58
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.34
1.50
Atalanta xG
5.00
20%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
22%
4.49
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
4%
22.43
23%
4.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 14.5 | 10.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.1 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Atalanta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Empoli and Atalanta expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Empoli and 1.50 for Atalanta, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Atalanta?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Empoli come into this having played 49 games, going 12W 16D 21L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-L. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Atalanta sit at 1.69 PPG from 49 outings (23W 14D 12L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Atalanta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atalanta carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Empoli — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Empoli's home form reads 5W 7D 12L across 24 games on their own ground, a 0.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Atalanta have taken 2.17 points per game from 24 outings (16W 4D 4L). That's actually stronger than their 1.69 PPG overall record — Atalanta travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Empoli are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Atalanta are on 1.65 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Empoli have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Blended
Atalanta
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Atalanta in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 12W 16D 21L in their last 49 games (1.06 PPG), while Atalanta have gone 23W 14D 12L in their last 49 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Atalanta away?
Atalanta's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 0.92 PPG; Atalanta away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Empoli or Atalanta been keeping clean sheets recently?
Empoli have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Atalanta in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Atalanta have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atalanta won 0-5 on 23 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Empoli have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Atalanta — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Empoli
0
Draws
7
Atalanta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Atalanta?
From 8 meetings on record, Empoli have won 1, Atalanta have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Atalanta last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2025, when Empoli 0-5 Atalanta.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and Atalanta?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 79%, Atalanta 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Empoli) and 50% (Atalanta). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Atalanta in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Atalanta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Atalanta?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Empoli's games and 50% of Atalanta's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Empoli vs Atalanta usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Empoli's matches and 50% of Atalanta's.
Do Empoli and Atalanta tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Atalanta in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atalanta cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Empoli.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta beat Empoli 0-2 at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 0.84 xG and Atalanta 1.50 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Empoli fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.82 / defence 1.11 against Atalanta attack 1.17 / defence 0.73, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 20% | Draw 28% | Atalanta 52%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 51%, Atalanta 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Atalanta's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Empoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Atalanta (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.