Spezia 1-2 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Spezia at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spezia vs Fiorentina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 12 as Spezia welcome Fiorentina to Stadio Alberto Picco. Kick-off is set for Sunday 30 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Spezia stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spezia's home record at Stadio Alberto Picco: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Spezia are significantly better at Stadio Alberto Picco than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Fiorentina have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Spezia 0.60 PPG, Fiorentina 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Spezia register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Fiorentina in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Spezia, 2 for Fiorentina and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2022, ended 1–2 with Fiorentina winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Spezia in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Fiorentina in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 53% versus Fiorentina 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 59% | Fiorentina 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.40 xG and Fiorentina 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 1.045 / defence 1.221 | Fiorentina attack 0.747 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.157. Data: 49 Spezia games / 49 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 44% | Draw 29% | Fiorentina 27%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Fiorentina 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Spezia are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Spezia 70% | Fiorentina 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 44% | Draw 29% | Fiorentina 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Spezia 1.40 / Fiorentina 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 1.045 / def 1.221 | Fiorentina attack 0.747 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Spezia (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Fiorentina xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Fiorentina kick off?
Spezia vs Fiorentina kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 30 October 2022 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Fiorentina?
Spezia 1 - 2 Fiorentina.
Where is Spezia vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Fiorentina part of?
Spezia vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 44% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Spezia and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Fiorentina?
Record (2 meetings): Spezia 0W | Draws 0 | Fiorentina 2W.
What form are Spezia and Fiorentina in?
Spezia (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Fiorentina (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Spezia's attack rating (1.04) and Fiorentina's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fiorentina's attack versus Spezia's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
44%
2.28
29%
3.49
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.46
1.05
Fiorentina xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
15%
6.54
7%
14.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.7 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Spezia and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Spezia and 1.05 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Spezia come into this having played 49 games, going 12W 9D 28L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fiorentina sit at 1.47 PPG from 49 outings (21W 9D 19L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fiorentina carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Spezia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Spezia's home form reads 7W 6D 11L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Fiorentina have taken 0.96 points per game from 24 outings (6W 5D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.47 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fiorentina's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Spezia are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.43 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Blended
Fiorentina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 12W 9D 28L in their last 49 games (0.92 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 21W 9D 19L in their last 49 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Fiorentina away?
Spezia's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 1.12 PPG; Fiorentina away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Oct 2021, when Fiorentina won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Spezia's record when hosting Fiorentina specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Spezia
1
Draws
3
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Fiorentina?
From 4 meetings on record, Spezia have won 0, Fiorentina have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 8 April 2023, when Fiorentina 1-1 Spezia.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Fiorentina?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Spezia see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Fiorentina see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 62%, Fiorentina 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Spezia) and 50% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: Fiorentina in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Fiorentina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Spezia's games and 62% of Fiorentina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spezia vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Spezia's recent games and 50% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Fiorentina defy the odds to beat Spezia 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Spezia 1-2 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.40 xG and Fiorentina 1.05 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Fiorentina outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 1.04 / defence 1.22 against Fiorentina attack 0.75 / defence 0.97, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 44% | Draw 29% | Fiorentina 27%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Fiorentina win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 59%, Fiorentina 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Fiorentina's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Fiorentina (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.