Genoa 0-0 Torino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genoa at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Genoa face Torino.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris plays host to Genoa versus Torino in Serie A (matchday 15). Kick-off: Saturday 7 December 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Genoa have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Genoa's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Torino's record over their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
When travelling, Torino have posted 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Genoa, 0.70 for Torino — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Torino edge it 2 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.8 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 13 Jan 2024, ended Genoa 0–0 Torino — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Genoa half-time and goal-timing data (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Torino half-time and goal-timing data (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 54% versus Torino 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Genoa 42% | Torino 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.42 xG and Torino 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.875 / defence 1.147 | Torino attack 0.964 / defence 1.196. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.272. Data: built from Genoa's last 52 games and Torino's last 52.
Result probabilities: Genoa 37% | Draw 26% | Torino 37%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 2.68 | Draw 3.85 | Torino 2.72. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 37% to win, with the draw at 26%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Genoa 37% and Torino 37%, with the draw at 26%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Genoa's last 10 home games and Torino's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Genoa 60% (last 10 home games) | Torino 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Torino | Competition: Serie A, matchday 15 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 7 December 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 37% | Draw 26% | Torino 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Genoa 1.42 / Torino 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.875 / def 1.147 | Torino attack 0.964 / def 1.196 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Genoa and Torino level at 37% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Torino xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Genoa vs Torino FAQs
What time does Genoa vs Torino kick off?
Genoa vs Torino kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Torino?
Genoa 0 - 0 Torino.
Where is Genoa vs Torino being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Torino part of?
Genoa vs Torino is a Serie A fixture (matchday 15) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Torino?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 37% chance of winning, Torino a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Torino?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Genoa and Torino will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Genoa vs Torino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Genoa's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Torino's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Torino's attack (0.96x) against Genoa's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from Genoa's last 52 games and Torino's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
37%
2.68
26%
3.85
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.83
1.41
Torino xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
24%
4.08
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
9%
10.94
9%
11.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.3 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.8 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.4 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Genoa vs Torino Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Torino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Genoa and Torino expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Genoa and 1.41 for Torino, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Torino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Genoa's recent record stands at 15W 18D 19L from 52 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-W in the last five.
Torino, meanwhile, have gone 17W 17D 18L across 52 games — 1.31 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Genoa against 1.31 for Torino. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Genoa have managed 8W 11D 7L from their last 26 home games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Torino's away record stands at 7W 6D 13L across their last 26 away games, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Genoa are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Torino are on 1.00 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Torino in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Blended
Torino
Blended
Genoa (Home) vs Torino (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Genoa
Blended
Torino
Blended
❓ Genoa vs Torino Form FAQs
What form are Genoa and Torino in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 15W 18D 19L in their last 52 games (1.21 PPG), while Torino have gone 17W 17D 18L in their last 52 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Torino away?
Genoa's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.35 PPG; Torino away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Genoa or Torino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Torino in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 22 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Genoa won Genoa 3-0 Torino on 22 Feb 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genoa have gone 2W 2D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Torino — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Genoa
3
Draws
3
Torino
Recent Meetings
❓ Genoa vs Torino H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Torino?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Genoa have won 2, Torino have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Torino last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 February 2026: Genoa 3-0 Torino.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Torino?
Torino have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Torino see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 58%, Torino 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Genoa) and 42% (Torino).
On the defensive side: Torino in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Torino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Genoa vs Torino Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Genoa and Torino matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Genoa's recent matches and 46% of Torino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Genoa and Torino matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Genoa's recent games and 42% of Torino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Torino matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Genoa's recent matches and 58% of Torino's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Genoa's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa and Torino finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.42 xG and Torino 1.41 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Genoa fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Torino landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.88 / defence 1.15 against Torino attack 0.96 / defence 1.20, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 37% | Draw 26% | Torino 37%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 42%, Torino 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Torino's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genoa 1.21 PPG, Torino 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Torino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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