Fiorentina 1-0 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Fiorentina (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fiorentina face Cagliari.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cagliari make the trip to Stadio Artemio Franchi to face Fiorentina in Serie A, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Sunday 8 December 2024 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Fiorentina's overall Serie A record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina at Stadio Artemio Franchi this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cagliari have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cagliari's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Fiorentina. A 1.30 PPG lead over Cagliari (2.50 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Fiorentina have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, Cagliari in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Across 4 previous meetings, Fiorentina are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2024, ended 3–2 with Fiorentina winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Fiorentina and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Fiorentina half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Cagliari half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 55% versus Cagliari 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 53% | Cagliari 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 2.21 xG and Cagliari 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.359 / defence 0.956 | Cagliari attack 0.975 / defence 1.186. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.272. Fiorentina carry an above-average attack strength of 1.359 — their λ of 2.21 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 51 Fiorentina games / 52 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 60% | Draw 21% | Cagliari 19%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | Cagliari 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Fiorentina (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.21 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fiorentina are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.40 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fiorentina 90% | Cagliari 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Dec 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 60% | Draw 21% | Cagliari 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 62% | xG Fiorentina 2.21 / Cagliari 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.359 / def 0.956 | Cagliari attack 0.975 / def 1.186 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Cagliari xG
62%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Cagliari kick off?
Fiorentina vs Cagliari kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 8 December 2024 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Cagliari?
Fiorentina 1 - 0 Cagliari.
Where is Fiorentina vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Cagliari part of?
Fiorentina vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 60% chance of winning, Cagliari a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Fiorentina and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Cagliari?
Record (4 meetings): Fiorentina 3W | Draws 1 | Cagliari 0W.
What form are Fiorentina and Cagliari in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Cagliari (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fiorentina's attack rating (1.36) and Cagliari's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 2.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cagliari's attack (0.97x) against Fiorentina's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 51/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
60%
1.66
21%
4.78
19%
5.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
3.40
1.19
Cagliari xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.78
21%
Draw
5.26
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
31%
3.28
11%
9.14
Win to Nil
18%
5.45
2%
48.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.19 for Cagliari, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Cagliari?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fiorentina's recent record stands at 25W 13D 13L from 51 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cagliari, meanwhile, have gone 11W 16D 24L across 51 games — 0.96 PPG, with L-L-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fiorentina by 0.77 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cagliari heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Fiorentina have managed 14W 6D 4L from 24 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cagliari's away record stands at 3W 6D 15L across 24 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fiorentina are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.12 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cagliari in 63%.
Last 51 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Blended
Cagliari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 25W 13D 13L in their last 51 games (1.73 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 11W 16D 24L in their last 51 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Cagliari away?
Fiorentina's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 2.00 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fiorentina won 3-0 on 24 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fiorentina have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cagliari — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Fiorentina
2
Draws
1
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Cagliari?
From 8 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 5, Cagliari have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Fiorentina 1-2 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Cagliari?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 67%, Cagliari 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Fiorentina and 54% for Cagliari. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cagliari in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Cagliari?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Fiorentina's games and 54% of Cagliari's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fiorentina vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Fiorentina's matches and 54% of Cagliari's.
Do Fiorentina and Cagliari tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fiorentina edge out Cagliari 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Cagliari 1-0 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 2.21 xG and Cagliari 1.19 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fiorentina fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Cagliari landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.36 / defence 0.96 against Cagliari attack 0.97 / defence 1.19, drawn from 51/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 60% | Draw 21% | Cagliari 19%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 53%, Cagliari 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Cagliari's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.96. That form edge translated into the three points. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Cagliari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.